Palm Valley Capital Fund Market Value
| PVCMX Fund | USD 12.68 0.01 0.08% |
| Symbol | Palm |
Palm Valley 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Palm Valley's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Palm Valley.
| 02/24/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Palm Valley on February 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Palm Valley Capital or generate 0.0% return on investment in Palm Valley over 60 days. Palm Valley is related to or competes with Templeton Emerging, Amg Gwk, Templeton Dragon, WisdomTree Japan, and Biglari Holdings. To achieve its investment objective the fund invests primarily in a portfolio of small capitalization common stocks More
Palm Valley Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Palm Valley's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Palm Valley Capital upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.2676 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.34) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.24) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.318 |
Palm Valley Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Palm Valley's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Palm Valley's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Palm Valley historical prices to predict the future Palm Valley's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0611 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.26) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0754 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Palm Valley's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Palm Valley Capital Backtested Returns
We consider Palm Valley very steady. Palm Valley Capital maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.11, which implies the entity had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Palm Valley Capital, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Palm Valley's Semi Deviation of 0.1418, risk adjusted performance of 0.0611, and Coefficient Of Variation of 763.64 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0229%. The fund holds a Beta of 0.22, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Palm Valley's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Palm Valley is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.53 |
Modest predictability
Palm Valley Capital has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Palm Valley time series from 24th of February 2024 to 25th of March 2024 and 25th of March 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Palm Valley Capital price movement. The serial correlation of 0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current Palm Valley price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Palm Valley Capital lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Palm Valley mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Palm Valley's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Palm Valley returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Palm Valley has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Palm Valley regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Palm Valley mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Palm Valley mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Palm Valley mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Palm Valley Lagged Returns
When evaluating Palm Valley's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Palm Valley mutual fund have on its future price. Palm Valley autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Palm Valley autocorrelation shows the relationship between Palm Valley mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Palm Valley Capital.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Palm Valley in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Palm Valley's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Palm Valley options trading.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Palm Valley Capital using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Palm Valley Correlation, Palm Valley Volatility and Palm Valley Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Palm Valley. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Palm Valley technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.