American Balanced Fund Market Value
| RLBBX Fund | USD 32.57 0.30 0.91% |
| Symbol | American |
American Balanced 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Balanced's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Balanced.
| 03/17/2024 |
| 04/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Balanced on March 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Balanced Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Balanced over 30 days. American Balanced is related to or competes with Income Fund, Capital Income, Capital World, Growth Fund, and New Perspective. The fund uses a balanced approach to invest in a broad range of securities, including common stocks and investment-grade... More
American Balanced Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Balanced's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Balanced Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5117 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.21 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.72) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.9404 |
American Balanced Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Balanced's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Balanced's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Balanced historical prices to predict the future American Balanced's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0778 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0043 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.0004) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.074 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Balanced's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Balanced Backtested Returns
We consider American Balanced very steady. American Balanced secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which signifies that the fund had a 0.12% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for American Balanced Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm American Balanced's risk adjusted performance of 0.0778, and Mean Deviation of 0.3907 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0629%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.74, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American Balanced's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Balanced is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.67 |
Very good reverse predictability
American Balanced Fund has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Balanced time series from 17th of March 2024 to 1st of April 2024 and 1st of April 2024 to 16th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Balanced price movement. The serial correlation of -0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current American Balanced price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
American Balanced lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Balanced mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Balanced's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Balanced returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Balanced has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Balanced regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Balanced mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Balanced mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Balanced mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Balanced Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Balanced's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Balanced mutual fund have on its future price. American Balanced autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Balanced autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Balanced mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Balanced Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Balanced in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Balanced's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Balanced options trading.
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Check out American Balanced Correlation, American Balanced Volatility and American Balanced Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Balanced. Note that the American Balanced information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Balanced's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Latest Portfolios module to quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios.
American Balanced technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.