American Mutual Fund Market Value
| RMFCX Fund | USD 51.67 0.37 0.71% |
| Symbol | American |
American Mutual 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Mutual's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Mutual.
| 03/16/2024 |
| 04/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Mutual on March 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Mutual Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Mutual over 30 days. American Mutual is related to or competes with Income Fund, New World, American Funds, American Funds, Income Fund, New Economy, and New Economy. The fund invests primarily in common stocks of companies that are likely to participate in the growth of the American ec... More
American Mutual Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Mutual's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Mutual Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5771 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.48 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.84) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.8539 |
American Mutual Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Mutual's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Mutual's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Mutual historical prices to predict the future American Mutual's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0565 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.049 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Mutual's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Mutual Backtested Returns
We consider American Mutual very steady. American Mutual secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0888, which signifies that the fund had a 0.0888% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for American Mutual Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm American Mutual's risk adjusted performance of 0.0565, and Mean Deviation of 0.4115 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0479%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.81, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American Mutual's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Mutual is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.82 |
Excellent reverse predictability
American Mutual Fund has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Mutual time series from 16th of March 2024 to 31st of March 2024 and 31st of March 2024 to 15th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Mutual price movement. The serial correlation of -0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current American Mutual price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.82 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.18 |
American Mutual lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Mutual mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Mutual's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Mutual returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Mutual has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Mutual regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Mutual mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Mutual mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Mutual mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Mutual Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Mutual's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Mutual mutual fund have on its future price. American Mutual autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Mutual autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Mutual mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Mutual Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Check out American Mutual Correlation, American Mutual Volatility and American Mutual Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Mutual. Note that the American Mutual information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Mutual's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.
American Mutual technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.