Moderately Servative Balanced Fund Market Value
| SBCCX Fund | USD 10.28 0.06 0.59% |
| Symbol | Moderately |
Moderately Conservative 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Moderately Conservative's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Moderately Conservative.
| 04/06/2024 |
| 05/06/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Moderately Conservative on April 6, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Moderately Servative Balanced or generate 0.0% return on investment in Moderately Conservative over 30 days. Moderately Conservative is related to or competes with Salient Alternative, Aggressive Balanced, Salient Mlp, Moderately Aggressive, Small Capitalization, Small Capitalization, and Small Capitalization. The Portfolios main investment strategy is to invest in other Saratoga Advantage Trust mutual funds andor unaffiliated r... More
Moderately Conservative Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Moderately Conservative's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Moderately Servative Balanced upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5836 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.17 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.88) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.8008 |
Moderately Conservative Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Moderately Conservative's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Moderately Conservative's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Moderately Conservative historical prices to predict the future Moderately Conservative's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0517 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0467 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moderately Conservative's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Moderately Conservative Backtested Returns
We consider Moderately Conservative very steady. Moderately Conservative has Sharpe Ratio of 0.074, which conveys that the entity had a 0.074% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Moderately Conservative, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please verify Moderately Conservative's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0517, mean deviation of 0.4244, and Downside Deviation of 0.5836 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0389%. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.74, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Moderately Conservative's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Moderately Conservative is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.55 |
Good reverse predictability
Moderately Servative Balanced has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Moderately Conservative time series from 6th of April 2024 to 21st of April 2024 and 21st of April 2024 to 6th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Moderately Conservative price movement. The serial correlation of -0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Moderately Conservative price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Moderately Conservative lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Moderately Conservative mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Moderately Conservative's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Moderately Conservative returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Moderately Conservative has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Moderately Conservative regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Moderately Conservative mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Moderately Conservative mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Moderately Conservative mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Moderately Conservative Lagged Returns
When evaluating Moderately Conservative's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Moderately Conservative mutual fund have on its future price. Moderately Conservative autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Moderately Conservative autocorrelation shows the relationship between Moderately Conservative mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Moderately Servative Balanced.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Moderately Conservative Correlation, Moderately Conservative Volatility and Moderately Conservative Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Moderately Conservative. Note that the Moderately Conservative information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Moderately Conservative's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Moderately Conservative technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.