PT Surya (Indonesia) Market Value
| SPTO Stock | IDR 490.00 4.00 0.81% |
| Symbol | SPTO |
PT Surya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Surya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Surya.
| 05/20/2024 |
| 06/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Surya on May 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Surya Pertiwi or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Surya over 30 days. PT Surya is related to or competes with Indorama Synthetics, Mitra Pinasthika, Jakarta Int, Indosat Tbk, Multistrada Arah, Darma Henwa, and Inocycle Technology. PT Surya Pertiwi Tbk distributes bathroom and kitchen products More
PT Surya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Surya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Surya Pertiwi upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.53 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.87) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.84 |
PT Surya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Surya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Surya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Surya historical prices to predict the future PT Surya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.99) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of PT Surya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
PT Surya Pertiwi Backtested Returns
PT Surya Pertiwi retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0827, which implies the firm had a -0.0827% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. PT Surya exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check PT Surya's market risk adjusted performance of (0.98), and Information Ratio of (0.06) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.0755, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, PT Surya's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding PT Surya is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, PT Surya Pertiwi has a negative expected return of -0.1%. Please make sure to check PT Surya's market risk adjusted performance, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if PT Surya Pertiwi performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Auto-correlation | 0.92 |
Excellent predictability
PT Surya Pertiwi has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Surya time series from 20th of May 2024 to 4th of June 2024 and 4th of June 2024 to 19th of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Surya Pertiwi price movement. The serial correlation of 0.92 indicates that approximately 92.0% of current PT Surya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.92 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.75 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 20.12 |
PT Surya Pertiwi lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Surya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Surya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Surya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Surya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Surya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Surya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Surya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Surya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Surya Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Surya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Surya stock have on its future price. PT Surya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Surya autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Surya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Surya Pertiwi.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in SPTO Stock
PT Surya financial ratios help investors to determine whether SPTO Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SPTO with respect to the benefits of owning PT Surya security.