Toews Tactical Oceana Fund Market Value
| THIDX Fund | USD 9.26 0.02 0.22% |
| Symbol | Toews |
Toews Tactical 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Toews Tactical's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Toews Tactical.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Toews Tactical on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Toews Tactical Oceana or generate 0.0% return on investment in Toews Tactical over 30 days. Toews Tactical is related to or competes with Goldman Sachs, Qs International, Asg Managed, Materials Portfolio, Dupont De, Home Depot, and Bank of America. The funds adviser seeks to achieve its investment objectives by investing primarily in securities linked to developed ma... More
Toews Tactical Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Toews Tactical's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Toews Tactical Oceana upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7011 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.07 |
Toews Tactical Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Toews Tactical's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Toews Tactical's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Toews Tactical historical prices to predict the future Toews Tactical's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0392 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.034 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toews Tactical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Toews Tactical Oceana Backtested Returns
We consider Toews Tactical very steady. Toews Tactical Oceana owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0611, which indicates the fund had a 0.0611% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Toews Tactical Oceana, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Toews Tactical's Coefficient Of Variation of 1591.72, risk adjusted performance of 0.0392, and Semi Deviation of 0.6217 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0384%. The entity has a beta of 0.89, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Toews Tactical returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Toews Tactical is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.53 |
Modest predictability
Toews Tactical Oceana has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Toews Tactical time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Toews Tactical Oceana price movement. The serial correlation of 0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current Toews Tactical price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.61 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Toews Tactical Oceana lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Toews Tactical mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Toews Tactical's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Toews Tactical returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Toews Tactical has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Toews Tactical regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Toews Tactical mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Toews Tactical mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Toews Tactical mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Toews Tactical Lagged Returns
When evaluating Toews Tactical's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Toews Tactical mutual fund have on its future price. Toews Tactical autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Toews Tactical autocorrelation shows the relationship between Toews Tactical mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Toews Tactical Oceana.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Toews Tactical Correlation, Toews Tactical Volatility and Toews Tactical Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Toews Tactical. Note that the Toews Tactical Oceana information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Toews Tactical's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Toews Tactical technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.