US BANK NATIONAL Market Value

90331HPL1   95.12  2.30  2.36%   
90331HPL1's market value is the price at which a share of 90331HPL1 trades on an exchange. It measures the collective expectations of US BANK NATIONAL investors about the bond's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of US BANK NATIONAL and determine expected loss or profit from investing in 90331HPL1 over a given investment horizon.
Check out 90331HPL1 Correlation, 90331HPL1 Volatility and 90331HPL1 Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on 90331HPL1.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between 90331HPL1's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if 90331HPL1 is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, 90331HPL1's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

90331HPL1 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to 90331HPL1's bond what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of 90331HPL1.
0.00
03/22/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
04/21/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in 90331HPL1 on March 22, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding US BANK NATIONAL or generate 0.0% return on investment in 90331HPL1 over 30 days. 90331HPL1 is related to or competes with 00108WAF7, Barrett Business, Murphy USA, Banco Macro, Heritage Insurance, MPLX LP, and Lifeway Foods. More

90331HPL1 Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure 90331HPL1's bond current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess US BANK NATIONAL upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

90331HPL1 Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for 90331HPL1's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as 90331HPL1's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use 90331HPL1 historical prices to predict the future 90331HPL1's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of 90331HPL1's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
94.7895.1295.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
85.6195.5495.88
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
93.5493.8794.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
94.4796.6998.92
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 90331HPL1. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 90331HPL1's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 90331HPL1's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in US BANK NATIONAL.

US BANK NATIONAL Backtested Returns

US BANK NATIONAL retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.15, which signifies that the bond had a -0.15% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. 90331HPL1 exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm 90331HPL1's Variance of 0.0848, risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,469) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The bond owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.0234, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, 90331HPL1's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding 90331HPL1 is expected to be smaller as well.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.06  

Virtually no predictability

US BANK NATIONAL has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between 90331HPL1 time series from 22nd of March 2024 to 6th of April 2024 and 6th of April 2024 to 21st of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of US BANK NATIONAL price movement. The serial correlation of 0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current 90331HPL1 price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.06
Spearman Rank Test0.05
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.0

US BANK NATIONAL lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is 90331HPL1 bond's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting 90331HPL1's bond expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of 90331HPL1 returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that 90331HPL1 has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the bond is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

90331HPL1 regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If 90331HPL1 bond is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if 90331HPL1 bond is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in 90331HPL1 bond over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

90331HPL1 Lagged Returns

When evaluating 90331HPL1's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of 90331HPL1 bond have on its future price. 90331HPL1 autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, 90331HPL1 autocorrelation shows the relationship between 90331HPL1 bond current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in US BANK NATIONAL.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out 90331HPL1 Correlation, 90331HPL1 Volatility and 90331HPL1 Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on 90331HPL1.
Note that the US BANK NATIONAL information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other 90331HPL1's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Sign In To Macroaxis module to sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules.
90331HPL1 technical bond analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, bond market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of 90331HPL1 technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of 90331HPL1 trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...