Vanguard Target Retirement Fund Market Value
| VTTHX Fund | USD 22.32 0.08 0.36% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard Target 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard Target's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard Target.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard Target on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard Target Retirement or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard Target over 30 days. Vanguard Target is related to or competes with Vanguard Materials, Vanguard Limited, Vanguard Limited, Vanguard Global, Vanguard Emerging, Vanguard Market, and Vanguard Market. The fund invests in a mix of Vanguard mutual funds according to an asset allocation strategy designed for investors plan... More
Vanguard Target Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard Target's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard Target Retirement upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5467 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.2 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.79) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.7482 |
Vanguard Target Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard Target's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard Target's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard Target historical prices to predict the future Vanguard Target's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0335 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0161 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3609 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Target's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Target Reti Backtested Returns
We consider Vanguard Target very steady. Vanguard Target Reti owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0462, which indicates the fund had a 0.0462% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Vanguard Target Retirement, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Vanguard Target's Semi Deviation of 0.4712, coefficient of variation of 1731.07, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0335 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0227%. The entity has a beta of 0.0532, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard Target's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard Target is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.51 |
Modest predictability
Vanguard Target Retirement has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard Target time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard Target Reti price movement. The serial correlation of 0.51 indicates that about 51.0% of current Vanguard Target price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.51 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.62 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.08 |
Vanguard Target Reti lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard Target mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard Target's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard Target returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard Target has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Target regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard Target mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard Target mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard Target mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard Target Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard Target's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard Target mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard Target autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard Target autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard Target mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard Target Retirement.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Vanguard Target Correlation, Vanguard Target Volatility and Vanguard Target Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Vanguard Target. Note that the Vanguard Target Reti information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Vanguard Target's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Vanguard Target technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.