Federal Mutual Fund Manager Performance Evaluation

FCITX -  USA Fund  

USD 12.19  0.01  0.08%

The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0022, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Federal's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Federal Intermediate are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Federal Intermediate is likely to outperform the market. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Federal Intermediate Term historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy towards predicting any fund's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Federal Intermediate Term exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.

Federal Mutual Fund Performance 

 
Refresh
 Federal Performance
0 of 100
Over the last 90 days Federal Intermediate Term has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to fund investors. In spite of fairly strong basic indicators, Federal Intermediate is not utilizing all of its potentials. The current stock price disturbance, may contribute to short-term losses for the investors.
Fifty Two Week Low12.20
Fifty Two Week High12.49
Annual Report Expense Ratio1.11%

Federal Intermediate Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  1,243  in Federal Intermediate Term on July 29, 2021 and sell it today you would lose (24.00)  from holding Federal Intermediate Term or give up 1.93% of portfolio value over 90 days. Federal Intermediate Term is currently producing negative expected returns and takes up 0.0639% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 0% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than Federal, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
 Daily Expected Return (%) 
      Risk (%) 
Assuming the 90 days horizon Federal Intermediate is expected to under-perform the market. But the company apears to be less risky and when comparing its historical volatility, the company is 11.1 times less risky than the market. the firm trades about -0.48 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The DOW is currently generating roughly 0.05 of returns per unit of risk over similar time horizon.

Federal Intermediate Current Valuation

Undervalued
Today
12.19
27th of October 2021
Share
Please note that Federal Intermediate's price fluctuation is very steady at this time.
Federal Intermediate Term shows a prevailing Real Value of $13.32 per share. The current price of the fund is $12.19. At this time, the entity appears to be undervalued. We determine the value of Federal Intermediate Term from reviewing fund fundamentals and technical indicators as well as its Probability Of Bankruptcy. In general, we advise acquiring undervalued instruments and dropping overvalued instruments since, at some point, stock prices and their ongoing real values will submerge.
Our valuation method for Federal Intermediate Term is useful when determining the fair value of the Federal mutual fund, which is usually determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of Federal Intermediate. Since Federal Intermediate is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Federal Mutual Fund. However, Federal Intermediate's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
13.32
Real Value
13.38
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Federal Intermediate Term helps investors to forecast how Federal mutual fund's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Federal Intermediate more accurately as focusing exclusively on Federal Intermediate's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
12.1312.1912.25
Details

Federal Intermediate Market Risk Analysis

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Federal Intermediate's investment risk. Standard deviation is the most common way to measure market volatility of mutual funds, such as Federal Intermediate Term, and traders can use it to determine the average amount a Federal Intermediate's price has deviated from the expected return over a period of time. It is calculated by determining the expected price for the established period and then subtracting this figure from each price point. The differences are then squared, summed, and averaged to produce the variance.

Sharpe Ratio = -0.4766

Best
Portfolio
Best
Equity
Good Returns
Average Returns
Small Returns
CashSmall
Risk
Average
Risk
High
Risk
Huge
Risk
FCITX
Based on monthly moving average Federal Intermediate is performing at about 0% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of Federal Intermediate by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.

About Federal Intermediate Performance

To evaluate Federal Intermediate Term Mutual Fund as a possible investment, you need to clearly understand its upside potential, downside risk, and overall future performance outlook. You may be satisfied when Federal Intermediate generates a 15% return over the last few months, but what if the market is generating 25% over the same period? In this case, it makes sense to compare Federal Mutual Fund's performance with different market indexes, such as the Dow or NASDAQ Composite. These indexes can act as benchmarks that will help you to understand Federal Intermediate Term stock market performance in a much more refined way. At Macroaxis, we take it even further. The Macroaxis performance score is an integer between 0 and 100 that represents Federal's market performance from a risk-adjusted return perspective. Generally speaking, the higher the score, the better is overall performance as compared to other investors. The score is normalized against the average investing universe (the best we can interpret from the data available). Within this methodology, scores of individual equity instruments will always be inferior to the scores of portfolios of equities as portfolios typically diversify a lot of unsystematic risks away. The formula to derive the Macroaxis score bases on multiple unequally-weighted factors. For more information, refer to our portfolio performance evaluation section.
Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
The investment seeks to provide investors with as high a level of income exempt from federal income taxes as is consistent with prudent investment management and the preservation of shareholders capital. Federal Intermediate is traded on NASDAQ Exchange in the United States.

Things to note about Federal Intermediate Term

Checking the ongoing alerts about Federal Intermediate for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Federal Intermediate Term help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Federal Intermediate Alerts

Equity Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Federal Intermediate generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Federal Intermediate is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
On 30th of September 2021 Federal Intermediate paid $ 0.0143 per share dividend to its current shareholders
The fund retains about 99.74% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities
Please check Investing Opportunities. Note that the Federal Intermediate Term information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Federal Intermediate's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for Federal Mutual Fund analysis

When running Federal Intermediate Term price analysis, check to measure Federal Intermediate's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federal Intermediate is operating at the current time. Most of Federal Intermediate's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federal Intermediate's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federal Intermediate's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federal Intermediate to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Portfolio File Import
Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format
Go
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federal Intermediate's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Federal Intermediate value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federal Intermediate's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.