Nicholas Mutual Fund Manager Performance Evaluation

NCTWX -  USA Fund  

USD 28.70  0.80  2.87%

The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.2213, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Nicholas's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Nicholas will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Nicholas II price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our philosophy towards estimating any fund's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Nicholas exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.
  
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Nicholas Performance
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Over the last 90 days Nicholas II has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to fund investors. In spite of latest weak performance, the Fund's basic indicators remain strong and the current disturbance on Wall Street may also be a sign of long term gains for the fund investors.
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Nicholas Price Channel

Fifty Two Week Low27.56
Fifty Two Week High38.74
Annual Report Expense Ratio0.60%

Nicholas Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  3,194  in Nicholas II on February 15, 2022 and sell it today you would lose (324.00)  from holding Nicholas II or give up 10.14% of portfolio value over 90 days. Nicholas II is currently producing negative expected returns and takes up 1.7135% volatility of returns over 90 trading days. Put another way, 14% of traded mutual funds are less volatile than Nicholas, and 99% of all traded equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns over the next 90 trading days.
 Daily Expected Return (%) 
      Risk (%) 
Assuming the 90 days horizon Nicholas is expected to under-perform the market. In addition to that, the company is 1.34 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about -0.09 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. The DOW is currently generating roughly -0.1 per unit of volatility.

Nicholas Current Valuation

Fairly Valued
Today 28.70
Share
Please note that Nicholas' price fluctuation is very steady at this time.
Nicholas II secures a last-minute Real Value of $29.11 per share. The latest price of the fund is $28.7. At this time, the fund appears to be fairly valued. We determine the value of Nicholas II from analyzing fund fundamentals and technical indicators as well as its Probability Of Bankruptcy. In general, we recommend acquiring undervalued stocks and dropping overvalued stocks since, at some point, stock prices and their ongoing real values will merge together.
Our valuation method for Nicholas II is useful when determining the fair value of the Nicholas mutual fund, which is usually determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of Nicholas. Since Nicholas is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Nicholas Mutual Fund. However, Nicholas' intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
29.11
Real Value
30.82
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Nicholas II helps investors to forecast how Nicholas mutual fund's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Nicholas more accurately as focusing exclusively on Nicholas' fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
26.9928.7030.41
Details

Nicholas Market Risk Analysis

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nicholas' investment risk. Standard deviation is the most common way to measure market volatility of mutual funds, such as Nicholas II, and traders can use it to determine the average amount a Nicholas' price has deviated from the expected return over a period of time. It is calculated by determining the expected price for the established period and then subtracting this figure from each price point. The differences are then squared, summed, and averaged to produce the variance.

Sharpe Ratio = -0.0905

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Negative ReturnsNCTWX
Estimated Market Risk
 1.71
  actual daily
 
 14 %
of total potential
 
1414
Expected Return
 -0.16
  actual daily
 
 0 %
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Risk-Adjusted Return
 -0.09
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 0 %
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Based on monthly moving average Nicholas is performing at about 0% of its full potential. If added to a well diversified portfolio the total return can be enhanced and market risk can be reduced. You can increase risk-adjusted return of Nicholas by adding it to a well-diversified portfolio.

About Nicholas Performance

To evaluate Nicholas II Mutual Fund as a possible investment, you need to clearly understand its upside potential, downside risk, and overall future performance outlook. You may be satisfied when Nicholas generates a 15% return over the last few months, but what if the market is generating 25% over the same period? In this case, it makes sense to compare Nicholas Mutual Fund's performance with different market indexes, such as the Dow or NASDAQ Composite. These indexes can act as benchmarks that will help you to understand Nicholas II stock market performance in a much more refined way. At Macroaxis, we take it even further. The Macroaxis performance score is an integer between 0 and 100 that represents Nicholas's market performance from a risk-adjusted return perspective. Generally speaking, the higher the score, the better is overall performance as compared to other investors. The score is normalized against the average investing universe (the best we can interpret from the data available). Within this methodology, scores of individual equity instruments will always be inferior to the scores of portfolios of equities as portfolios typically diversify a lot of unsystematic risks away. The formula to derive the Macroaxis score bases on multiple unequally-weighted factors. For more information, refer to our portfolio performance evaluation section.
Please also refer to our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages.
The investment seeks to increase the value of the investment over the long-term. The fund primarily invests in common stocks of domestic corporations with medium-sized market capitalizations believed to have growth potential. The adviser believes a companys annual sales volume and the market capitalization are the factors most illustrative of a companys size. The adviser generally considers companies with market capitalizations up to 3 billion as small, between 3 billion and 25 billion as medium, and greater than 25 billion as large.

Things to note about Nicholas II

Checking the ongoing alerts about Nicholas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Nicholas II help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Nicholas Alerts

Equity Alerts and Improvement Suggestions

Nicholas II generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Nicholas II is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
The fund maintains 98.06% of its assets in stocks
Additionally, see Stocks Correlation. Note that the Nicholas II information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nicholas' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

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When running Nicholas II price analysis, check to measure Nicholas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nicholas is operating at the current time. Most of Nicholas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nicholas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nicholas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nicholas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Nicholas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nicholas value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nicholas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.