Alcoa Stock Future Price Prediction

AA -  USA Stock  

USD 38.27  0.69  1.77%

Alcoa Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alcoa Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alcoa Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alcoa Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alcoa Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alcoa Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alcoa stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alcoa Corp over a specific investment horizon. Using Alcoa Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alcoa Corp from the perspective of Alcoa Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Alcoa Corp Interest Coverage is projected to slightly grow based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Coverage was at 1.25. The current year Long Term Debt to Equity is expected to grow to 0.80, whereas Calculated Tax Rate is forecasted to decline to 66.01.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alcoa Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alcoa Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alcoa because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Alcoa Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 38.02  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcoa Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alcoa Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
37.4140.8444.27
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
35.9139.3442.77
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0044.3856.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.884.895.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcoa Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcoa Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcoa Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alcoa Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alcoa Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Alcoa Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Alcoa Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Alcoa Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alcoa Corp's historical news coverage. Alcoa Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 34.59 and 41.45, respectively. We have considered Alcoa Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
38.27
27th of July 2021
38.02
After-hype Price
41.45
Upside
Alcoa Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alcoa Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alcoa Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Alcoa Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alcoa Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alcoa Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.13  3.43  0.25   0.03  7 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
38.2738.020.65 
175.00  

Alcoa Corp Hype Timeline

As of July 27, 2021 Alcoa Corp is listed for 38.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Alcoa is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 38.02. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is about 175.0%. The price decline on the next newsis expected to be -0.65% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Alcoa Corp is about 1715.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 38.3. About 82.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Alcoa Corp was presently reported as 17.4. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.04. Alcoa Corp recorded a loss per share of 0.4. The entity next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the August 3, 2016. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of November 2016. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 7 days.
Please continue to Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alcoa Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Alcoa Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alcoa Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Alcoa Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alcoa Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Alcoa Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alcoa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alcoa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alcoa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Alcoa Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Alcoa Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alcoa Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alcoa Corp based on analysis of Alcoa Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alcoa Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alcoa Corp's related companies.
 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.330.440.740.8
Interest Coverage14.021.391.251.28

Story Coverage note for Alcoa Corp

The number of cover stories for Alcoa Corp depends on current market conditions and Alcoa Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alcoa Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alcoa Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Latest Perspective on Alcoa Corp

Alcoa Corp Short Properties

Alcoa Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alcoa Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alcoa Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alcoa Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcoa Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out5.36%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.36
Short Percent Of Float5.37%
Float Shares186.01M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day10.63M
Shares Short Prior Month10.17M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month7.58M
Date Short Interest15th of June 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.97%
Please continue to Alcoa Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.