Acadia Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction
| ACAD Stock | USD 17.07 0.12 0.70% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
29
Oversold | Overbought |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.66 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.27 | Wall Street Target Price 29.4 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.3 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ACADIA stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals over a specific investment horizon. Using ACADIA Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ACADIA Pharmaceuticals using ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ACADIA using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ACADIA. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ACADIA Pharmaceuticals may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals and may potentially protect profits, hedge ACADIA Pharmaceuticals with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 24.7513 | Short Percent 0.0908 | Short Ratio 4.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.6 M | 50 Day MA 21.174 |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ACADIA. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ACADIA can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ACADIA Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 581.54 |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ACADIA Pharmaceuticals. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ACADIA Pharmaceuticals to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ACADIA because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 17.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ACADIA contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 36.35% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With ACADIA Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 17.07, that is roughly USD 6.2 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring ACADIA Pharmaceuticals options at the current volatility level of 581.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
ACADIA |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ACADIA Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.20 and 20.36, respectively. We have considered ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ACADIA Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.72 | 3.08 | 0.21 | 0.30 | 13 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
17.07 | 17.28 | 1.23 |
|
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is presently traded for 17.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.3. ACADIA is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 17.28 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.23%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.72%. The volatility of related hype on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is about 750.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.77. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 726.44 M. Net Loss for the year was (61.29 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 145.49 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ACADIA Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ACADIA price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ACADIA using various technical indicators. When you analyze ACADIA charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ACADIA Pharmaceuticals, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals based on analysis of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ACADIA Pharmaceuticals's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ACADIA Pharmaceuticals's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 2.78 | 0.8 | 2.61 | 2.72 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 150.28 | 238.26 | 285.89 | 153.81 |
Story Coverage note for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 163.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 438.9 M |
Check out ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade ACADIA Stock refer to our How to Trade ACADIA Stock guide.Note that the ACADIA Pharmaceuticals information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Complementary Tools for ACADIA Stock analysis
When running ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Sign In To Macroaxis Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules | |
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| CEOs Directory Screen CEOs from public companies around the world |
Is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals. If investors know ACADIA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ACADIA Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.37) | Revenue Per Share 4.434 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.693 | Return On Assets (0.07) | Return On Equity (0.15) |
The market value of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ACADIA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ACADIA Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.