Addus Homecare Stock Price Prediction
| ADUS Stock | USD 94.76 1.27 1.36% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Addus HomeCare stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Addus HomeCare shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Addus HomeCare's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Addus HomeCare and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Addus HomeCare's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Addus HomeCare, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Addus HomeCare's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.334 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.09 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.79 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.26 | Wall Street Target Price 109.13 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Addus HomeCare based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Addus stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Addus HomeCare over a specific investment horizon. Using Addus HomeCare hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Addus HomeCare from the perspective of Addus HomeCare response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Addus HomeCare using Addus HomeCare's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Addus using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Addus HomeCare's stock price.
Addus HomeCare Implied Volatility | 67.09 |
Addus HomeCare's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Addus HomeCare stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Addus HomeCare's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Addus HomeCare stock will not fluctuate a lot when Addus HomeCare's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Addus HomeCare. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Addus HomeCare to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Addus because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Addus HomeCare after-hype prediction price | USD 93.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Addus contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Addus HomeCare will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.19% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Addus HomeCare trading at USD 94.76, that is roughly USD 3.97 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Addus HomeCare's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Addus HomeCare options at the current volatility level of 67.09%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Addus |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Addus HomeCare's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Addus HomeCare After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Addus HomeCare at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Addus HomeCare or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Addus HomeCare, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Addus HomeCare Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Addus HomeCare's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Addus HomeCare's historical news coverage. Addus HomeCare's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 91.67 and 95.59, respectively. We have considered Addus HomeCare's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Addus HomeCare is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Addus HomeCare is based on 3 months time horizon.
Addus HomeCare Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Addus HomeCare is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Addus HomeCare backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Addus HomeCare, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.94 | 0.14 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
94.76 | 93.63 | 0.15 |
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Addus HomeCare Hype Timeline
Addus HomeCare is presently traded for 94.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Addus is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 93.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 112.14%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on Addus HomeCare is about 1175.76%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 94.75. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.06 B. Net Income was 62.52 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 299.74 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Addus HomeCare Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Addus HomeCare Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Addus HomeCare's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Addus HomeCare's future price movements. Getting to know how Addus HomeCare's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Addus HomeCare may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EHC | Encompass Health Corp | 0.09 | 10 per month | 0.69 | 0.09 | 2.40 | (1.34) | 7.95 | |
| PNTG | Pennant Group | (0.37) | 10 per month | 1.50 | 0.16 | 3.45 | (3.21) | 13.54 | |
| ACHC | Acadia Healthcare | (1.22) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 2.01 | (2.61) | 6.80 | |
| SEM | Select Medical Holdings | 0.37 | 10 per month | 1.45 | (0) | 2.43 | (2.42) | 12.75 | |
| ENSG | The Ensign Group | 0.11 | 9 per month | 1.14 | (0.05) | 2.38 | (2.33) | 7.13 | |
| UHS | Universal Health Services | 0.61 | 10 per month | 1.46 | (0.02) | 2.49 | (2.50) | 7.41 | |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners | 0.18 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 4.07 | (4.29) | 14.59 | |
| OPCH | Option Care Health | (0.45) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.09 | (3.01) | 8.28 | |
| AMED | Amedisys | 0.17 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.35) | 0.61 | (0.68) | 2.07 | |
| EHAB | Enhabit | 0.28 | 9 per month | 3.00 | 0 | 5.48 | (4.79) | 27.98 | |
| INNV | InnovAge Holding Corp | 0.09 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 6.98 | (8.20) | 21.11 | |
| NHC | National HealthCare | (1.84) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.45 | (2.67) | 7.84 |
Addus HomeCare Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Addus price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Addus using various technical indicators. When you analyze Addus charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Addus HomeCare Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Addus HomeCare stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Addus HomeCare, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Addus HomeCare based on analysis of Addus HomeCare hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Addus HomeCare's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Addus HomeCare's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0608 | 0.0578 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.4 | 0.76 |
Story Coverage note for Addus HomeCare
The number of cover stories for Addus HomeCare depends on current market conditions and Addus HomeCare's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Addus HomeCare is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Addus HomeCare's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Addus HomeCare Short Properties
Addus HomeCare's future price predictability will typically decrease when Addus HomeCare's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Addus HomeCare often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Addus HomeCare's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Addus HomeCare's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 16.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64.8 M |
Check out Addus HomeCare Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Addus Stock please use our How to Invest in Addus HomeCare guide.You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.
Complementary Tools for Addus Stock analysis
When running Addus HomeCare's price analysis, check to measure Addus HomeCare's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Addus HomeCare is operating at the current time. Most of Addus HomeCare's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Addus HomeCare's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Addus HomeCare's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Addus HomeCare to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Addus HomeCare's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Addus HomeCare. If investors know Addus will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Addus HomeCare listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.334 | Earnings Share 3.83 | Revenue Per Share 66.182 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.119 | Return On Assets 0.0618 |
The market value of Addus HomeCare is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Addus that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Addus HomeCare's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Addus HomeCare's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Addus HomeCare's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Addus HomeCare's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Addus HomeCare's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Addus HomeCare is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Addus HomeCare's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.