American Stock Future Price Prediction

AEO
 Stock
  

USD 10.13  0.40  4.11%   

American Eagle Outfitters stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Eagle shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Eagle's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Eagle and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Eagle's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Eagle Outfitters, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to American Eagle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Eagle based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Eagle over a specific investment horizon.Using American Eagle hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Eagle Outfitters from the perspective of American Eagle response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Eagle using American Eagle's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Eagle's stock price.

American Eagle Implied Volatility

    
  80.39  
American Eagle's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Eagle Outfitters stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Eagle's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Eagle stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Eagle's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Eagle. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Eagle to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Eagle after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 10.28  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Eagle Outfitters will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 5.02% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With American Eagle trading at $10.13, that is roughly $0.51. If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Eagle's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Eagle Outfitters options at the current volatility level of 80.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Eagle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Eagle in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.1315.4218.78
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
26.0033.0845.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Eagle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Eagle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Eagle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Eagle Outfitters.

American Eagle After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Eagle at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Eagle or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Eagle, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American Eagle Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Eagle's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Eagle's historical news coverage. American Eagle's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.92 and 13.64, respectively. We have considered American Eagle's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 10.13
10.28
After-hype Price
13.64
Upside
American Eagle is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Eagle Outfitters is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Eagle Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as American Eagle is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Eagle backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Eagle, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.16  3.36  0.14    0.43  5 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.1310.281.38 
386.21  

American Eagle Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of October American Eagle Outfitters is traded for 10.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.14 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.43. American is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 10.28 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 1.38% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.16%. The volatility of related hype on American Eagle is about 125.37% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 9.7. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.03 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 355.91 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.99 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 5 days.
Please continue to American Eagle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Eagle Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Eagle's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Eagle's future price movements. Getting to know how American Eagle rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Eagle may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.51  0.07  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

American Eagle Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Eagle Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Eagle stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Eagle Outfitters, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Eagle based on analysis of American Eagle hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Eagle's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Eagle's related companies.

Story Coverage note for American Eagle

The number of cover stories for American Eagle depends on current market conditions and American Eagle's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Eagle is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Eagle's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

American Eagle Short Properties

American Eagle's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Eagle's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Eagle Outfitters often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Eagle's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Eagle's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out15.54%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.14
Short Percent Of Float29.06%
Float Shares127.84M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day8.72M
Shares Short Prior Month33.75M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month6.71M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield1.33%
Please continue to American Eagle Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Eagle Outfitters information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Eagle's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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When running American Eagle Outfitters price analysis, check to measure American Eagle's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Eagle is operating at the current time. Most of American Eagle's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Eagle's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Eagle's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Eagle to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Eagle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Eagle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Eagle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of American Eagle Outfitters is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Eagle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Eagle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Eagle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Eagle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Eagle value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.