Applied Stock Future Price Prediction

AGTC
 Stock
  

USD 0.27  0.01  3.85%   

Applied Genetic Tech stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Applied Genetic shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Applied Genetic's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Applied Genetic and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Applied Genetic's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Applied Genetic Tech, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Applied Genetic Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Applied Genetic based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Applied stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Applied Genetic over a specific investment horizon.Using Applied Genetic hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied Genetic Tech from the perspective of Applied Genetic response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Applied Genetic using Applied Genetic's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Applied using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Applied Genetic's stock price.

Applied Genetic Implied Volatility

    
  21.09  
Applied Genetic's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applied Genetic Tech stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applied Genetic's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applied Genetic stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applied Genetic's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Applied Genetic. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Applied Genetic to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Applied because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Applied Genetic after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 0.25  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Applied Genetic's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Applied Genetic in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.214.2312.12
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.0016.1435.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Applied Genetic. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Applied Genetic's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Applied Genetic's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Applied Genetic Tech.

Applied Genetic After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Applied Genetic at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied Genetic or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied Genetic, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Applied Genetic Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Applied Genetic's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied Genetic's historical news coverage. Applied Genetic's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 8.14, respectively. We have considered Applied Genetic's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 0.27
0.25
After-hype Price
8.14
Upside
Applied Genetic is very risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied Genetic Tech is based on 3 months time horizon.

Applied Genetic Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Applied Genetic is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Genetic backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Genetic, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.26  7.89   0.01    1.66  10 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.270.253.85 
78,900  

Applied Genetic Hype Timeline

Applied Genetic Tech is presently traded for 0.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.66. Applied is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 0.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -3.85% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -1.26%. The volatility of related hype on Applied Genetic is about 600.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of -1.39. About 34.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.17. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Applied Genetic Tech recorded a loss per share of 2.27. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Please continue to Applied Genetic Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Applied Genetic Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Applied Genetic's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied Genetic's future price movements. Getting to know how Applied Genetic rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied Genetic may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Applied Genetic Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Applied Genetic Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Applied Genetic stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Applied Genetic Tech, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Applied Genetic based on analysis of Applied Genetic hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Applied Genetic's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Applied Genetic's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Applied Genetic

The number of cover stories for Applied Genetic depends on current market conditions and Applied Genetic's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied Genetic is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied Genetic's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Applied Genetic Short Properties

Applied Genetic's future price predictability will typically decrease when Applied Genetic's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applied Genetic Tech often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applied Genetic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Genetic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.98%
Short Percent Of Float2.99%
Float Shares50.5M
Shares Short Prior Month1.36M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day738.44k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.34M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Please continue to Applied Genetic Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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When running Applied Genetic Tech price analysis, check to measure Applied Genetic's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Genetic is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Genetic's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Genetic's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Genetic's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Genetic to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Applied Genetic's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Applied Genetic. If investors know Applied will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Applied Genetic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Applied Genetic Tech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Applied that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Applied Genetic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Applied Genetic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Applied Genetic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Applied Genetic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Applied Genetic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Applied Genetic value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Applied Genetic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.