Align Technology Stock Price Prediction
ALGN Stock | USD 301.34 1.20 0.40% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Align Technology stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Align Technology shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Align Technology's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Align Technology and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Align Technology's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Align Technology, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Align Technology's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.06 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.1 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.28 | EPS Estimate Next Year 10.51 | Wall Street Target Price 321.27 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Align Technology based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Align stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Align Technology over a specific investment horizon. Using Align Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Align Technology from the perspective of Align Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Align Technology using Align Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Align using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Align Technology's stock price.
Align Technology Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Align Technology's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Align. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Align Technology stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Align Technology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Align Technology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Align Technology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 293.2989 | Short Percent 0.0213 | Short Ratio 2.81 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.4 M | 50 Day MA 311.5944 |
Align Technology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Align Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Align. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Align can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Align Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Align Technology's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Align Technology.
Align Technology Implied Volatility | 76.87 |
Align Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Align Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Align Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Align Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Align Technology's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Align Technology. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Align Technology to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Align because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Align Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 299.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Align contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Align Technology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.8% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Align Technology trading at USD 301.34, that is roughly USD 14.48 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Align Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Align Technology options at the current volatility level of 76.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Align |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Align Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Align Technology After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Align Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Align Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Align Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Align Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Align Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Align Technology's historical news coverage. Align Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 297.89 and 301.99, respectively. We have considered Align Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Align Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Align Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Align Technology Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Align Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Align Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Align Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.05 | 1.40 | 0.51 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
301.34 | 299.94 | 0.46 |
|
Align Technology Hype Timeline
Align Technology is presently traded for 301.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.4, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.51. Align is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 299.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 27.85%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Align Technology is about 77.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 300.83. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.96. Align Technology recorded earning per share (EPS) of 5.82. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Align Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Align Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Align Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Align Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Align Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Align Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
A | Agilent Technologies | 1.40 | 9 per month | 1.44 | (0.02) | 2.26 | (2.44) | 6.31 | |
ILMN | Illumina | 2.01 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.65 | (3.83) | 9.89 | |
WAT | Waters | 1.35 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.55 | (3.04) | 7.95 | |
TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific | (4.99) | 8 per month | 1.28 | (0.05) | 1.80 | (1.63) | 6.87 | |
MTD | Mettler Toledo International | (18.65) | 7 per month | 1.82 | (0.03) | 2.48 | (3.26) | 6.80 | |
CRL | Charles River Laboratories | (2.39) | 9 per month | 1.57 | 0.05 | 2.87 | (2.57) | 15.05 | |
GH | Guardant Health | (0.35) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.82 | (7.29) | 22.73 | |
RVTY | Revvity | 0.35 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.09 | (3.33) | 8.67 |
Align Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Align price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Align using various technical indicators. When you analyze Align charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Align Technology Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Align Technology stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Align Technology, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Align Technology based on analysis of Align Technology hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Align Technology's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Align Technology's related companies. 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.13 | 0.14 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.42 | 5.15 |
Story Coverage note for Align Technology
The number of cover stories for Align Technology depends on current market conditions and Align Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Align Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Align Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Align Technology Short Properties
Align Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Align Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Align Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Align Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Align Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.6 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 972.7 M |
Check out Align Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Align Stock, please use our How to Invest in Align Technology guide.Note that the Align Technology information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Align Technology's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for Align Stock analysis
When running Align Technology's price analysis, check to measure Align Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Align Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Align Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Align Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Align Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Align Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance |
Is Align Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Align Technology. If investors know Align will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Align Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.06 | Earnings Share 5.82 | Revenue Per Share 50.536 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.061 | Return On Assets 0.0682 |
The market value of Align Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Align that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Align Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Align Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Align Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Align Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Align Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Align Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Align Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.