Alaska Air Group Stock Price Prediction

ALK Stock  USD 39.18  0.26  0.67%   
As of now, the relative strength index (RSI) of Alaska Air's share price is approaching 47. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Alaska Air's stock, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

47

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Alaska Air Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Alaska Air shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Alaska Air's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Alaska Air and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Alaska Air's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Alaska Air Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Alaska Air's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.484
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.70)
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.27
EPS Estimate Next Year
6.01
Wall Street Target Price
50.4
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Alaska Air based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Alaska stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Alaska Air over a specific investment horizon. Using Alaska Air hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alaska Air Group from the perspective of Alaska Air response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Alaska Air using Alaska Air's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Alaska using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Alaska Air's stock price.

Alaska Air Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Alaska Air's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Alaska. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Alaska Air stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Alaska Air may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Alaska Air and may potentially protect profits, hedge Alaska Air with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
41.1034
Short Percent
0.029
Short Ratio
1.06
Shares Short Prior Month
3.9 M
50 Day MA
37.167

Alaska Air Group Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Alaska Air's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Alaska. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Alaska can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Alaska Air Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Alaska Air's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Alaska Air.

Alaska Air Implied Volatility

    
  36.9  
Alaska Air's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Alaska Air Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Alaska Air's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Alaska Air stock will not fluctuate a lot when Alaska Air's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Alaska Air. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Alaska Air to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Alaska because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Alaska Air after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 39.18  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Alaska contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Alaska Air Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.31% per day over the life of the 2024-03-15 option contract. With Alaska Air trading at USD 39.18, that is roughly USD 0.9 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Alaska Air's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Alaska Air Group options at the current volatility level of 36.9%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Alaska Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alaska Air's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alaska Air in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
35.3038.1641.02
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
34.9537.8140.67
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
46.9451.5857.25
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.9-1.12-0.59
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alaska Air. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alaska Air's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alaska Air's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Alaska Air Group.

Alaska Air After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Alaska Air at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alaska Air or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alaska Air, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Alaska Air Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Alaska Air's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alaska Air's historical news coverage. Alaska Air's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 36.32 and 42.04, respectively. We have considered Alaska Air's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
39.18
39.18
After-hype Price
42.04
Upside
Alaska Air is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alaska Air Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Alaska Air Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alaska Air is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alaska Air backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alaska Air, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
2.86
  0.09 
  0.10 
11 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
39.18
39.18
0.00 
397.22  
Notes

Alaska Air Hype Timeline

On the 22nd of February Alaska Air Group is traded for 39.18. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Alaska expected not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis expected to be very small whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.13%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Alaska Air is about 390.25%. The volatility of related hype on Alaska Air is about 390.25% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 39.08. About 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.19. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alaska Air Group has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.3. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of February 2020. The firm had 2:1 split on the 10th of July 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 11 days.
Check out Alaska Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Alaska Air Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Alaska Air's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alaska Air's future price movements. Getting to know how Alaska Air rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alaska Air may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Alaska Air Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Alaska price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alaska using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alaska charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Alaska Air Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Alaska Air stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Alaska Air Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alaska Air based on analysis of Alaska Air hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Alaska Air's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Alaska Air's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.490.530.62
Interest Coverage1.7128.1428.89

Story Coverage note for Alaska Air

The number of cover stories for Alaska Air depends on current market conditions and Alaska Air's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alaska Air is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alaska Air's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Alaska Air Short Properties

Alaska Air's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alaska Air's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alaska Air Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alaska Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alaska Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding128.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.8 B
When determining whether Alaska Air Group is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Alaska Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Alaska Air Group Stock:
Check out Alaska Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

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When running Alaska Air's price analysis, check to measure Alaska Air's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alaska Air is operating at the current time. Most of Alaska Air's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alaska Air's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alaska Air's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alaska Air to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Alaska Air's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alaska Air. If investors know Alaska will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Alaska Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.484
Earnings Share
1.83
Revenue Per Share
81.853
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.03
Return On Assets
0.0356
The market value of Alaska Air Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alaska that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alaska Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alaska Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alaska Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alaska Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alaska Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Alaska Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alaska Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.