Allegion Plc Stock Price Prediction
| ALLE Stock | USD 126.97 1.55 1.24% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
58
Oversold | Overbought |
Allegion PLC stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Allegion PLC shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Allegion PLC's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Allegion PLC and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Allegion PLC's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Allegion PLC, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Allegion PLC's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.49 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.07 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.56 | Wall Street Target Price 135.17 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Allegion PLC based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Allegion stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Allegion PLC over a specific investment horizon. Using Allegion PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Allegion PLC from the perspective of Allegion PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Allegion PLC using Allegion PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Allegion using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Allegion PLC's stock price.
Allegion PLC Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Allegion PLC's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Allegion. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Allegion PLC stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Allegion PLC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Allegion PLC and may potentially protect profits, hedge Allegion PLC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 116.7381 | Short Percent 0.0209 | Short Ratio 1.97 | Shares Short Prior Month 2 M | 50 Day MA 130.5976 |
Allegion PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Allegion PLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Allegion. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Allegion can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Allegion PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Allegion PLC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Allegion PLC.
Allegion PLC Implied Volatility | 32.15 |
Allegion PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Allegion PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Allegion PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Allegion PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when Allegion PLC's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Allegion PLC. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Allegion PLC to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Allegion because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Allegion PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 126.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Allegion contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Allegion PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.01% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Allegion PLC trading at USD 126.97, that is roughly USD 2.55 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Allegion PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Allegion PLC options at the current volatility level of 32.15%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Allegion |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allegion PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Allegion PLC After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Allegion PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Allegion PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Allegion PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Allegion PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Allegion PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Allegion PLC's historical news coverage. Allegion PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 125.69 and 128.17, respectively. We have considered Allegion PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Allegion PLC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Allegion PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
Allegion PLC Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Allegion PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Allegion PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Allegion PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.24 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
126.97 | 126.93 | 0.03 |
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Allegion PLC Hype Timeline
Allegion PLC is presently traded for 126.97. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Allegion is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 126.93. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 91.85%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Allegion PLC is about 595.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 126.98. About 100.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.19. Allegion PLC recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.12. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Allegion PLC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Allegion PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Allegion PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Allegion PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how Allegion PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Allegion PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSA | MSA Safety | 0.67 | 11 per month | 0.59 | 0.12 | 2.39 | (1.38) | 4.25 | |
| NL | NL Industries | 0.12 | 7 per month | 1.64 | 0.20 | 5.41 | (2.76) | 16.65 | |
| BRC | Brady | (0.55) | 13 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.45 | (2.40) | 7.35 | |
| BCO | Brinks Company | 0.43 | 11 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 1.94 | (2.20) | 6.94 | |
| MG | Mistras Group | (0.33) | 8 per month | 1.69 | 0.09 | 4.13 | (3.37) | 10.80 | |
| CIX | CompX International | 0.91 | 7 per month | 3.52 | 0.10 | 9.27 | (6.39) | 29.66 |
Allegion PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Allegion price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Allegion using various technical indicators. When you analyze Allegion charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Allegion PLC Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Allegion PLC stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Allegion PLC, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Allegion PLC based on analysis of Allegion PLC hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Allegion PLC's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Allegion PLC's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0108 | 0.0155 | 0.0143 | 0.007831 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.15 | 2.83 | 3.05 | 2.39 |
Story Coverage note for Allegion PLC
The number of cover stories for Allegion PLC depends on current market conditions and Allegion PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Allegion PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Allegion PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Allegion PLC Short Properties
Allegion PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when Allegion PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Allegion PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Allegion PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Allegion PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 88.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 468.1 M |
Check out Allegion PLC Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Allegion Stock refer to our How to Trade Allegion Stock guide.You can also try the Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Allegion Stock analysis
When running Allegion PLC's price analysis, check to measure Allegion PLC's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allegion PLC is operating at the current time. Most of Allegion PLC's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allegion PLC's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allegion PLC's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allegion PLC to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Allegion PLC's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allegion PLC. If investors know Allegion will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allegion PLC listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.13) | Dividend Share 1.8 | Earnings Share 6.12 | Revenue Per Share 41.534 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 |
The market value of Allegion PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allegion that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allegion PLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allegion PLC's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allegion PLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allegion PLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allegion PLC's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allegion PLC is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allegion PLC's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.