Apollo Global Management Stock Price Prediction
| APO Stock | USD 112.72 1.05 0.92% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
56
Oversold | Overbought |
Apollo Global Management stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Apollo Global shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Apollo Global's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Apollo Global and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Apollo Global's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Apollo Global Management, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Apollo Global's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.152 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.83 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.74 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.05 | Wall Street Target Price 122.82 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Apollo Global based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Apollo stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Apollo Global over a specific investment horizon. Using Apollo Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Apollo Global Management from the perspective of Apollo Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Apollo Global using Apollo Global's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Apollo using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Apollo Global's stock price.
Apollo Global Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Apollo Global's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Apollo. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Apollo Global stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Apollo Global may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Apollo Global and may potentially protect profits, hedge Apollo Global with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 94.4024 | Short Percent 0.0315 | Short Ratio 6.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 15.6 M | 50 Day MA 111.1538 |
Apollo Global Management Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Apollo Global's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Apollo. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Apollo can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Apollo Global Management. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Apollo Global's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Apollo Global.
Apollo Global Implied Volatility | 41.05 |
Apollo Global's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Apollo Global Management stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Apollo Global's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Apollo Global stock will not fluctuate a lot when Apollo Global's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Apollo Global. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Apollo Global to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Apollo because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Apollo Global after-hype prediction price | USD 112.87 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Apollo contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Apollo Global Management will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.57% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Apollo Global trading at USD 112.72, that is roughly USD 2.89 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Apollo Global's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Apollo Global Management options at the current volatility level of 41.05%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Apollo |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Apollo Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Apollo Global After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Apollo Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Apollo Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Apollo Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Apollo Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Apollo Global's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Apollo Global's historical news coverage. Apollo Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 111.41 and 114.33, respectively. We have considered Apollo Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Apollo Global is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apollo Global Management is based on 3 months time horizon.
Apollo Global Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Apollo Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Apollo Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Apollo Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.21 | 1.46 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 9 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
112.72 | 112.87 | 0.13 |
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Apollo Global Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Apollo Global Management is traded for 112.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. Apollo is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 112.87 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.13%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Apollo Global is about 158.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 112.53. The company reported the last year's revenue of 33.21 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 4.88 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 29.47 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Apollo Global Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Apollo Global Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Apollo Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Apollo Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Apollo Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Apollo Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CG | Carlyle Group | 0.38 | 10 per month | 1.45 | 0.09 | 2.61 | (2.13) | 12.87 | |
| BX | Blackstone Group | 1.25 | 9 per month | 1.90 | (0) | 2.61 | (2.89) | 7.54 | |
| BAM | Brookfield Asset Management | 0.38 | 10 per month | 1.34 | (0.04) | 2.41 | (2.13) | 6.82 | |
| ARES | Ares Management LP | 2.10 | 10 per month | 0.80 | 0.12 | 2.73 | (1.56) | 7.23 | |
| KKR | KKR Co LP | (2.97) | 10 per month | 1.14 | 0.09 | 2.97 | (2.04) | 8.94 | |
| TPG | TPG Inc | 0.03 | 11 per month | 1.47 | 0.05 | 2.23 | (2.64) | 7.43 | |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | (0.41) | 8 per month | 0.72 | 0.08 | 1.61 | (1.59) | 7.78 | |
| OWL | Blue Owl Capital | 0.26 | 10 per month | 0.97 | 0.13 | 3.73 | (1.88) | 9.12 | |
| AMG | Affiliated Managers Group | 2.53 | 8 per month | 0.85 | (0.01) | 1.70 | (1.78) | 7.25 | |
| ARCC | Ares Capital | (0.36) | 11 per month | 0.69 | (0.04) | 1.03 | (1.17) | 3.73 | |
| BLK | BlackRock | (14.93) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.82 | (2.52) | 5.83 | |
| PAX | Patria Investments | 0.11 | 7 per month | 1.42 | (0.04) | 2.38 | (1.98) | 7.27 | |
| CION | Cion Investment Corp | (0.31) | 8 per month | 1.01 | 0.0002 | 2.04 | (1.63) | 5.08 |
Apollo Global Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Apollo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Apollo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Apollo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Apollo Global Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Apollo Global stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Apollo Global Management, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Apollo Global based on analysis of Apollo Global hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Apollo Global's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Apollo Global's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0323 | 0.0258 | 0.0191 | 0.0181 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.88 | 10.5 | 1.63 | 2.26 |
Story Coverage note for Apollo Global
The number of cover stories for Apollo Global depends on current market conditions and Apollo Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Apollo Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Apollo Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Apollo Global Short Properties
Apollo Global's future price predictability will typically decrease when Apollo Global's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Apollo Global Management often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Apollo Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apollo Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 588.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.9 B |
Check out Apollo Global Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Apollo Stock analysis
When running Apollo Global's price analysis, check to measure Apollo Global's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Apollo Global is operating at the current time. Most of Apollo Global's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Apollo Global's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Apollo Global's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Apollo Global to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Apollo Global's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apollo Global. If investors know Apollo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Apollo Global listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.152 | Dividend Share 1.72 | Earnings Share 8.28 | Revenue Per Share 54.945 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.286 |
The market value of Apollo Global Management is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Apollo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Apollo Global's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Apollo Global's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Apollo Global's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Apollo Global's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apollo Global's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Apollo Global is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apollo Global's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.