Arcos Stock Future Price Prediction

ARCO Stock  USD 7.38  0.03  0.41%   
Arcos Dorados Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Arcos Dorados shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Arcos Dorados' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Arcos Dorados and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Arcos Dorados' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Arcos Dorados Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Check out Arcos Dorados Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Arcos Stock please use our How to Invest in Arcos Dorados guide.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Arcos Dorados based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Arcos stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Arcos Dorados over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
EPS Estimate Current Year
EPS Estimate Next Year
Wall Street Target Price
Using Arcos Dorados hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arcos Dorados Holdings from the perspective of Arcos Dorados response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arcos Dorados using Arcos Dorados' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arcos using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arcos Dorados' stock price.
Arcos Dorados Enterprise Value over EBIT is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Arcos Dorados reported last year Enterprise Value over EBIT of 11.00. As of 27th of March 2023, Enterprise Value over EBITDA is likely to grow to 8.04, while Current Ratio is likely to drop 0.84.

Arcos Dorados Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Arcos Dorados' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Arcos. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Arcos Dorados stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Arcos Dorados may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arcos Dorados and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arcos Dorados with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
Short Percent
Short Ratio
Shares Short Prior Month
543.1 K
50 Day MA

Arcos Dorados Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Arcos Dorados' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Arcos. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arcos can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arcos Dorados Holdings. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arcos Dorados' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arcos Dorados.

Arcos Dorados Implied Volatility

Arcos Dorados' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arcos Dorados Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arcos Dorados' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arcos Dorados stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arcos Dorados' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Arcos Dorados. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Arcos Dorados to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Arcos because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Arcos Dorados after-hype prediction price

  USD 7.39  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arcos Dorados' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Arcos Dorados in the context of predictive analytics.
LowReal ValueHigh
5 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arcos Dorados. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arcos Dorados' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arcos Dorados' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Arcos Dorados Holdings.

Arcos Dorados After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Arcos Dorados at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arcos Dorados or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arcos Dorados, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Arcos Dorados Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Arcos Dorados' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arcos Dorados' historical news coverage. Arcos Dorados' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.40 and 9.38, respectively. We have considered Arcos Dorados' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 7.38
After-hype Price
Arcos Dorados is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arcos Dorados Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Arcos Dorados Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Arcos Dorados is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arcos Dorados backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arcos Dorados, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13  1.99  0.01   0.05  9 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Arcos Dorados Hype Timeline

Arcos Dorados Holdings is presently traded for 7.38. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.05. Arcos is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 7.39 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.14% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Arcos Dorados is about 504.71% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 7.43. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.66 B. Net Income was 45.49 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 492.61 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Arcos Dorados Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Arcos Stock please use our How to Invest in Arcos Dorados guide.

Arcos Dorados Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Arcos Dorados' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arcos Dorados' future price movements. Getting to know how Arcos Dorados rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arcos Dorados may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Arcos Dorados Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Arcos price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arcos using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arcos charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Arcos Dorados Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Arcos Dorados stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arcos Dorados Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arcos Dorados based on analysis of Arcos Dorados hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arcos Dorados's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arcos Dorados's related companies.
 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Book Value per Share0.941.041.52
Asset Turnover0.91.171.45

Story Coverage note for Arcos Dorados

The number of cover stories for Arcos Dorados depends on current market conditions and Arcos Dorados' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arcos Dorados is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arcos Dorados' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Arcos Dorados Short Properties

Arcos Dorados' future price predictability will typically decrease when Arcos Dorados' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arcos Dorados Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arcos Dorados' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcos Dorados' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding208.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments278.8 M
Check out Arcos Dorados Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Arcos Stock please use our How to Invest in Arcos Dorados guide. Note that the Arcos Dorados Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arcos Dorados' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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Is Arcos Dorados' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arcos Dorados. If investors know Arcos will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arcos Dorados listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
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Earnings Share
Revenue Per Share
Quarterly Revenue Growth
The market value of Arcos Dorados Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arcos that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arcos Dorados' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arcos Dorados' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arcos Dorados' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arcos Dorados' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arcos Dorados' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Arcos Dorados value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arcos Dorados' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.