Asml Holding Nv Stock Price Prediction

ASML Stock  USD 1,014  22.52  2.17%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of ASML Holding's the stock price is about 64. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of now. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ASML, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

64

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ASML Holding's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ASML Holding and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ASML Holding's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ASML Holding NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting ASML Holding's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.37)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
4.4
EPS Estimate Current Year
20.54
EPS Estimate Next Year
32.14
Wall Street Target Price
1.1 K
Using ASML Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ASML Holding NV from the perspective of ASML Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ASML Holding using ASML Holding's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ASML using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ASML Holding's stock price.

ASML Holding Short Interest

An investor who is long ASML Holding may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ASML Holding and may potentially protect profits, hedge ASML Holding with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
810.2341
Short Percent
0.0024
Short Ratio
0.61
Shares Short Prior Month
694.5 K
50 Day MA
953.0348

ASML Holding NV Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to ASML Holding's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ASML. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ASML can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ASML Holding NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ASML Holding's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ASML Holding.

ASML Holding Implied Volatility

    
  39.3  
ASML Holding's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ASML Holding NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ASML Holding's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ASML Holding stock will not fluctuate a lot when ASML Holding's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ASML Holding to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ASML because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

ASML Holding after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 1013.94  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ASML contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ASML Holding NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.46% per day over the life of the 2024-06-28 option contract. With ASML Holding trading at USD 1014.08, that is roughly USD 24.91 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ASML Holding's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ASML Holding NV options at the current volatility level of 39.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out ASML Holding Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASML Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
748.53750.971,115
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
1,0121,0151,017
Details
39 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
619.28680.53755.39
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.833.994.11
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ASML Holding. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ASML Holding's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ASML Holding's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ASML Holding NV.

ASML Holding After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ASML Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ASML Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ASML Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ASML Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ASML Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ASML Holding's historical news coverage. ASML Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,012 and 1,016, respectively. We have considered ASML Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1,014
1,014
After-hype Price
1,016
Upside
ASML Holding is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ASML Holding NV is based on 3 months time horizon.

ASML Holding Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ASML Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ASML Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ASML Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.14 
2.44
  0.14 
  0.15 
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1,014
1,014
0.01 
239.22  
Notes

ASML Holding Hype Timeline

ASML Holding NV is presently traded for 1,014. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. ASML is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 1013.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on ASML Holding is about 225.14%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,014. About 20.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.81. ASML Holding NV recorded earning per share (EPS) of 19.38. The entity last dividend was issued on the 26th of April 2024. The firm had 8:9 split on the 1st of October 2007. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out ASML Holding Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

ASML Holding Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ASML Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ASML Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how ASML Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ASML Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
INTTinTest 0.20 8 per month 0.00 (0.05) 4.01 (4.99) 24.23 
PLABPhotronics 0.38 9 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.92 (3.66) 11.85 
INDIindie Semiconductor 0.73 7 per month 3.94  0.02  6.02 (5.81) 18.12 
KLICKulicke and Soffa(0.70)11 per month 1.74  0  2.68 (2.92) 7.17 
UCTTUltra Clean Holdings(0.37)8 per month 2.21  0.08  3.49 (3.71) 10.40 
COHUCohu Inc(0.42)10 per month 1.91  0.04  3.03 (2.44) 9.73 
AMATApplied Materials 2.70 11 per month 1.49  0.13  3.34 (2.79) 8.42 
KLACKLA Tencor(11.19)11 per month 1.89  0.14  3.71 (3.45) 8.86 

ASML Holding Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ASML price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASML using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASML charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About ASML Holding Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of ASML Holding stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ASML Holding NV, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ASML Holding based on analysis of ASML Holding hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ASML Holding's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ASML Holding's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0047690.01260.0087080.0101
Price To Sales Ratio15.429.589.7910.27

Story Coverage note for ASML Holding

The number of cover stories for ASML Holding depends on current market conditions and ASML Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ASML Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ASML Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

ASML Holding Short Properties

ASML Holding's future price predictability will typically decrease when ASML Holding's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ASML Holding NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ASML Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASML Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding394.1 M
Cash And Short Term InvestmentsB

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in ASML Stock

When determining whether ASML Holding NV is a strong investment it is important to analyze ASML Holding's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact ASML Holding's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding ASML Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ASML Holding. If investors know ASML will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ASML Holding listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.37)
Dividend Share
4.65
Earnings Share
19.38
Revenue Per Share
1.1939
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.22)
The market value of ASML Holding NV is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ASML that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ASML Holding's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ASML Holding's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ASML Holding's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ASML Holding's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ASML Holding's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ASML Holding is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ASML Holding's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.