Atkore International Group Stock Price Prediction
| ATKR Stock | USD 175.86 4.29 2.50% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
73
Oversold | Overbought |
Atkore International stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Atkore International shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Atkore International's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Atkore International and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Atkore International's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Atkore International Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Atkore International's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.15 | EPS Estimate Current Year 17.01 | EPS Estimate Next Year 17.98 | Wall Street Target Price 193.4 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Atkore International based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Atkore stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Atkore International over a specific investment horizon. Using Atkore International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Atkore International Group from the perspective of Atkore International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Atkore International using Atkore International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Atkore using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Atkore International's stock price.
Atkore International Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Atkore International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Atkore. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Atkore International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Atkore International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Atkore International and may potentially protect profits, hedge Atkore International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 151.1533 | Short Percent 0.1821 | Short Ratio 10.9 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.3 M | 50 Day MA 166.7874 |
Atkore International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Atkore International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Atkore. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Atkore can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Atkore International Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Atkore International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Atkore International.
Atkore International Implied Volatility | 43.37 |
Atkore International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Atkore International Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Atkore International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Atkore International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Atkore International's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Atkore International. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Atkore International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Atkore because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Atkore International after-hype prediction price | USD 175.88 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Atkore contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Atkore International Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.71% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Atkore International trading at USD 175.86, that is roughly USD 4.77 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Atkore International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Atkore International Group options at the current volatility level of 43.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Atkore |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Atkore International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Atkore International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Atkore International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Atkore International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Atkore International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Atkore International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Atkore International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Atkore International's historical news coverage. Atkore International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 173.58 and 178.18, respectively. We have considered Atkore International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Atkore International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Atkore International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Atkore International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Atkore International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Atkore International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Atkore International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 2.32 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 7 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
175.86 | 175.88 | 0.01 |
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Atkore International Hype Timeline
Atkore International is presently traded for 175.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.14. Atkore is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 175.88 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Atkore International is about 491.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 175.72. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 3.52 B. Net Income was 689.9 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.34 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Atkore International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Atkore International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Atkore International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Atkore International's future price movements. Getting to know how Atkore International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Atkore International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEIS | Advanced Energy Industries | (1.37) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.23 | (3.72) | 9.16 | |
| ENR | Energizer Holdings | (0.51) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.12 | (2.52) | 9.08 | |
| KE | Kimball Electronics | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.02 | (4.06) | 18.10 | |
| HOLI | Hollysys Automation Technologies | 0.02 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 0.83 | (1.20) | 3.47 |
Atkore International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Atkore price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Atkore using various technical indicators. When you analyze Atkore charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Atkore International Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Atkore International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Atkore International Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Atkore International based on analysis of Atkore International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Atkore International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Atkore International's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 49.32 | 58.07 | 52.27 | 42.65 | PTB Ratio | 2.72 | 3.94 | 4.53 | 5.31 |
Story Coverage note for Atkore International
The number of cover stories for Atkore International depends on current market conditions and Atkore International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Atkore International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Atkore International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Atkore International Short Properties
Atkore International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Atkore International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Atkore International Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Atkore International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Atkore International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 39.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 388.1 M |
Check out Atkore International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Atkore Stock analysis
When running Atkore International's price analysis, check to measure Atkore International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Atkore International is operating at the current time. Most of Atkore International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Atkore International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Atkore International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Atkore International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Atkore International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atkore International. If investors know Atkore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atkore International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share 16.68 | Revenue Per Share 91.461 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) | Return On Assets 0.1902 |
The market value of Atkore International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atkore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atkore International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atkore International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atkore International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atkore International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atkore International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Atkore International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atkore International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.