Activision Stock Future Price Prediction

ATVI
 Stock
  

USD 74.33  0.38  0.51%   

Activision Blizzard stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Activision Blizzard shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Activision Blizzard's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Activision Blizzard and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Activision Blizzard's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Activision Blizzard, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Activision Blizzard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Activision Blizzard based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Activision stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Activision Blizzard over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.33) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.44
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.04
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.91
Wall Street Target Price
92.29
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.5
Using Activision Blizzard hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Activision Blizzard from the perspective of Activision Blizzard response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Activision Blizzard using Activision Blizzard's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Activision using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Activision Blizzard's stock price.
Activision Blizzard Calculated Tax Rate is most likely to slightly decrease in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Calculated Tax Rate was reported at 14.70. The current Inventory Turnover is estimated to increase to 54.23, while PPandE Turnover is projected to decrease to 37.35.

Activision Blizzard Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Activision Blizzard's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Activision. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Activision Blizzard stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Activision Blizzard may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Activision Blizzard and may potentially protect profits, hedge Activision Blizzard with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
77.48
Short Percent
0.0306
Short Ratio
3.8
Shares Short Prior Month
23.7 M
50 Day MA
73.66
Shares Short
23.7 M

Activision Blizzard Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Activision Blizzard's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Activision. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Activision can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Activision Blizzard. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Activision Blizzard's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Activision Blizzard.

Activision Blizzard Implied Volatility

    
  29.52  
Activision Blizzard's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Activision Blizzard stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Activision Blizzard's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Activision Blizzard stock will not fluctuate a lot when Activision Blizzard's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Activision Blizzard. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Activision Blizzard to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Activision because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Activision Blizzard after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 73.93  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Activision contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Activision Blizzard will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.85% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Activision Blizzard trading at USD74.33, that is roughly USD1.37. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Activision Blizzard's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Activision Blizzard options at the current volatility level of 29.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Activision Blizzard's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Activision Blizzard in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
66.5683.0384.14
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
73.0674.1875.29
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
54.0091.68124.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (11)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.413.493.70
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Activision Blizzard. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Activision Blizzard's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Activision Blizzard's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Activision Blizzard.

Activision Blizzard After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Activision Blizzard at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Activision Blizzard or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Activision Blizzard, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Activision Blizzard Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Activision Blizzard's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Activision Blizzard's historical news coverage. Activision Blizzard's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 72.82 and 75.04, respectively. We have considered Activision Blizzard's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 74.33
73.93
After-hype Price
75.04
Upside
Activision Blizzard is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Activision Blizzard is based on 3 months time horizon.

Activision Blizzard Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Activision Blizzard is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Activision Blizzard backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Activision Blizzard, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07  1.09   0.02    0.01  8 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
74.3373.930.03 
473.91  

Activision Blizzard Hype Timeline

Activision Blizzard is presently traded for 74.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Activision is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 73.93. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.03% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Activision Blizzard is about 1102.25% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 74.32. About 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Activision Blizzard was presently reported as 24.03. The company last dividend was issued on the 13th of April 2022. Activision Blizzard had 2:1 split on the 8th of September 2008. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Please continue to Activision Blizzard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Activision Blizzard Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Activision Blizzard's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Activision Blizzard's future price movements. Getting to know how Activision Blizzard rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Activision Blizzard may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IBMInternational Business Machines 0.54 9 per month 1.13  0.10  2.79 (2.32)  6.45 
DDDupont De Nemours 0.40 8 per month 1.53  0.11  3.91 (2.55)  10.00 
GEGeneral Electric(0.07) 7 per month 1.77  0.06  3.43 (2.68)  9.22 
PGProcter Gamble(0.48) 6 per month 1.19  0.0164  1.83 (2.07)  4.27 
CVXChevron Corp(1.64) 7 per month 1.95  0.06  3.37 (2.91)  9.61 
HDHome Depot 0.32 9 per month 1.82  0.0467  2.81 (2.50)  11.25 
KOCoca-Cola Co 0.56 4 per month 1.17 (0.0197)  2.06 (1.59)  5.09 
CSCOCisco Systems(0.64) 7 per month 1.34  0.0458  3.23 (1.96)  6.31 
MRKMerck Company 0.12 8 per month 0.89  0.22  2.44 (1.71)  7.38 

Activision Blizzard Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Activision price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Activision using various technical indicators. When you analyze Activision charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Activision Blizzard Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Activision Blizzard stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Activision Blizzard, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Activision Blizzard based on analysis of Activision Blizzard hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Activision Blizzard's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Activision Blizzard's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover24.2634.9146.5837.35
Calculated Tax Rate7.9616.0214.719.53

Story Coverage note for Activision Blizzard

The number of cover stories for Activision Blizzard depends on current market conditions and Activision Blizzard's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Activision Blizzard is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Activision Blizzard's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Activision Blizzard Short Properties

Activision Blizzard's future price predictability will typically decrease when Activision Blizzard's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Activision Blizzard often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Activision Blizzard's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Activision Blizzard's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding778000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments10423000000.00
Please continue to Activision Blizzard Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Activision Blizzard price analysis, check to measure Activision Blizzard's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Activision Blizzard is operating at the current time. Most of Activision Blizzard's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Activision Blizzard's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Activision Blizzard's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Activision Blizzard to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Risk-Return Analysis
View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume
Go
Share Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Focused Opportunities
Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences
Go
Financial Widgets
Easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets
Go
Correlation Analysis
Reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated
Go
Is Activision Blizzard's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Activision Blizzard. If investors know Activision will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Activision Blizzard listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.33) 
Market Capitalization
57.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.14) 
Return On Assets
0.0522
Return On Equity
0.0936
The market value of Activision Blizzard is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Activision that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Activision Blizzard's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Activision Blizzard's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Activision Blizzard's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Activision Blizzard's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Activision Blizzard's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Activision Blizzard value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Activision Blizzard's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.