Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction
| AUPH Stock | USD 5.03 0.06 1.18% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
38
Oversold | Overbought |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.13) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.39 | Wall Street Target Price 11.29 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.16) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Aurinia stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals over a specific investment horizon. Using Aurinia Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aurinia Pharmaceuticals using Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aurinia using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Aurinia. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Aurinia Pharmaceuticals may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals and may potentially protect profits, hedge Aurinia Pharmaceuticals with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 7.9718 | Short Percent 0.0849 | Short Ratio 7.53 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.6 M | 50 Day MA 5.4738 |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aurinia. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aurinia can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 98.0 |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aurinia because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 5.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aurinia contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.12% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Aurinia Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 5.03, that is roughly USD 0.31 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aurinia Pharmaceuticals options at the current volatility level of 98.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Aurinia |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1.12 and 9.06, respectively. We have considered Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aurinia Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.64 | 3.97 | 0.04 | 0.28 | 10 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
5.03 | 5.09 | 0.00 |
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is presently traded for 5.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.28. Aurinia is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.64%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is about 902.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 4.75. About 39.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.95. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals recorded a loss per share of 0.54. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:50 split on the 23rd of October 2013. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aurinia Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aurinia price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aurinia using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aurinia charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aurinia Pharmaceuticals, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals based on analysis of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aurinia Pharmaceuticals's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 0.28 | 1.83 | 3.27 | 1.86 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 6.5K | 1.6K | 1.0K | 706.98 |
Story Coverage note for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 350.5 M |
Check out Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Aurinia Stock please use our How to Invest in Aurinia Pharmaceuticals guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for Aurinia Stock analysis
When running Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Aurinia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aurinia Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.54) | Revenue Per Share 1.225 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.586 | Return On Assets (0.11) | Return On Equity (0.20) |
The market value of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aurinia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aurinia Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.