AeroVironment Stock Future Price Prediction

AVAV Stock  USD 91.55  0.07  0.08%   
AeroVironment stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of AeroVironment shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of AeroVironment's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AeroVironment and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AeroVironment's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AeroVironment, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to AeroVironment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of AeroVironment based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AeroVironment stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on AeroVironment over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
EPS Estimate Current Year
EPS Estimate Next Year
Wall Street Target Price
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
Using AeroVironment hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AeroVironment from the perspective of AeroVironment response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AeroVironment using AeroVironment's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AeroVironment using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AeroVironment's stock price.
AeroVironment Asset Turnover is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. AeroVironment reported Asset Turnover of 0.44 in 2022. Current Ratio is likely to climb to 4.51 in 2023, whereas Operating Margin is likely to drop (2.62)  in 2023.

AeroVironment Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in AeroVironment's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AeroVironment. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AeroVironment stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long AeroVironment may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AeroVironment and may potentially protect profits, hedge AeroVironment with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
Short Percent
Short Ratio
Shares Short Prior Month
1.3 M
50 Day MA

AeroVironment Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to AeroVironment's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in AeroVironment. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AeroVironment can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AeroVironment. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AeroVironment's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AeroVironment.

AeroVironment Implied Volatility

AeroVironment's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AeroVironment stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AeroVironment's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AeroVironment stock will not fluctuate a lot when AeroVironment's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in AeroVironment. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AeroVironment to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AeroVironment because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

AeroVironment after-hype prediction price

  USD 91.45  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AeroVironment contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AeroVironment will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.71% per day over the life of the 2023-04-21 option contract. With AeroVironment trading at USD91.55, that is roughly USD1.57. If you think that the market is fully incorporating AeroVironment's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AeroVironment options at the current volatility level of 27.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AeroVironment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AeroVironment in the context of predictive analytics.
LowReal ValueHigh
LowNext ValueHigh
5 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AeroVironment. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AeroVironment's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AeroVironment's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AeroVironment.

AeroVironment After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AeroVironment at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AeroVironment or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AeroVironment, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AeroVironment Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AeroVironment's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AeroVironment's historical news coverage. AeroVironment's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 89.41 and 93.49, respectively. We have considered AeroVironment's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 91.55
After-hype Price
AeroVironment is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AeroVironment is based on 3 months time horizon.

AeroVironment Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as AeroVironment is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AeroVironment backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AeroVironment, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.14  2.04   0.10   0.01  7 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

AeroVironment Hype Timeline

AeroVironment is presently traded for 91.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.1 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. AeroVironment is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 91.45. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.11% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on AeroVironment is about 2435.82% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 91.56. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AeroVironment was presently reported as 24.78. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.72. AeroVironment recorded a loss per share of 0.35. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Please continue to AeroVironment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

AeroVironment Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AeroVironment's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AeroVironment's future price movements. Getting to know how AeroVironment rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AeroVironment may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
At Risk
CHKIFChina Southern Airlines 0.00 0 per month 0.83  0.13  2.94 (1.52)  18.41 
JBLUJetBlue Airways Corp(0.28) 6 per month 2.69  0.0262  4.20 (4.76)  17.60 
UALUnited Airlines Holdings 0.94 6 per month 2.36  0.09  4.28 (4.20)  14.17 
GATOGatos Silver 0.27 7 per month 3.19  0.07  5.63 (5.12)  19.95 
ULCCFrontier Group Holdings(0.1) 9 per month 0.00 (0.08)  4.63 (4.90)  20.99 
RYAAYRyanair Holdings PLC(0.16) 7 per month 1.80  0.15  3.01 (3.28)  14.55 
NSVLFAuQ Gold Mining 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
JPNRFJapan Airlines Co 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.05  0.00  0.00  27.15 

AeroVironment Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AeroVironment price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AeroVironment using various technical indicators. When you analyze AeroVironment charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About AeroVironment Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of AeroVironment stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as AeroVironment, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AeroVironment based on analysis of AeroVironment hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AeroVironment's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AeroVironment's related companies.
 2022 2023 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.260.28
Interest Coverage63.0862.71

Story Coverage note for AeroVironment

The number of cover stories for AeroVironment depends on current market conditions and AeroVironment's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AeroVironment is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AeroVironment's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

AeroVironment Short Properties

AeroVironment's future price predictability will typically decrease when AeroVironment's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AeroVironment often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AeroVironment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AeroVironment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding24.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments101.9 M
Please continue to AeroVironment Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the AeroVironment information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AeroVironment's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

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When running AeroVironment price analysis, check to measure AeroVironment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AeroVironment is operating at the current time. Most of AeroVironment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AeroVironment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AeroVironment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AeroVironment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AeroVironment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AeroVironment. If investors know AeroVironment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AeroVironment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
Earnings Share
Revenue Per Share
Quarterly Revenue Growth
Return On Assets
The market value of AeroVironment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AeroVironment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AeroVironment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AeroVironment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AeroVironment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AeroVironment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AeroVironment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AeroVironment value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AeroVironment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.