American Water Works Stock Price Prediction
| AWK Stock | USD 117.35 1.95 1.69% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
American Water Works stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Water shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Water's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Water and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Water's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Water Works, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting American Water's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.086 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.99 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.25 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.67 | Wall Street Target Price 139.18 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Water based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Water over a specific investment horizon. Using American Water hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Water Works from the perspective of American Water response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Water using American Water's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Water's stock price.
American Water Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in American Water's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards American. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of American Water stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long American Water may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about American Water and may potentially protect profits, hedge American Water with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 128.9598 | Short Percent 0.0156 | Short Ratio 1.59 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.5 M | 50 Day MA 119.337 |
American Water Works Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to American Water's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American Water Works. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of American Water's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about American Water.
American Water Implied Volatility | 43.02 |
American Water's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Water Works stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Water's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Water stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Water's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Water. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Water to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
American Water after-hype prediction price | USD 117.47 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current American contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that American Water Works will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.69% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With American Water trading at USD 117.35, that is roughly USD 3.16 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating American Water's daily price movement you should consider acquiring American Water Works options at the current volatility level of 43.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
American |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Water's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Water After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Water at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Water or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Water, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Water Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Water's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Water's historical news coverage. American Water's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 116.10 and 118.84, respectively. We have considered American Water's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Water is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Water Works is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Water Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Water is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Water backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Water, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.37 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
117.35 | 117.47 | 0.10 |
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American Water Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April American Water Works is traded for 117.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. American is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 117.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 128.04%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.1%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on American Water is about 811.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 117.33. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.23 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 944 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 2.2 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out American Water Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.American Water Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Water's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Water's future price movements. Getting to know how American Water's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Water may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CWT | California Water Service | (0.18) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.39 | (1.71) | 6.86 | |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water | (0.23) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 3.19 | (4.30) | 9.30 | |
| AWR | American States Water | (0.81) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.92 | (2.48) | 6.05 | |
| YORW | The York Water | 0.16 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.89 | (2.01) | 6.53 | |
| SJW | SJW Corporation | 0.59 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 1.94 | (2.55) | 6.13 | |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities | (0.81) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.00 | (2.70) | 7.98 | |
| ARTNA | Artesian Resources | (0.06) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.41 | (3.35) | 7.75 | |
| GWRS | Global Water Resources | (0.01) | 10 per month | 2.01 | (0.03) | 3.10 | (3.03) | 12.38 |
American Water Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About American Water Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of American Water stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Water Works, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Water based on analysis of American Water hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Water's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Water's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0125 | 0.0168 | 0.0209 | 0.0198 | Price To Sales Ratio | 8.75 | 7.32 | 6.02 | 6.32 |
Story Coverage note for American Water
The number of cover stories for American Water depends on current market conditions and American Water's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Water is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Water's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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American Water Short Properties
American Water's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Water's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Water Works often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Water's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Water's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 193 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 330 M |
Check out American Water Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Water's price analysis, check to measure American Water's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Water is operating at the current time. Most of American Water's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Water's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Water's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Water to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Water's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Water. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Water listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.086 | Dividend Share 2.778 | Earnings Share 4.91 | Revenue Per Share 21.938 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.108 |
The market value of American Water Works is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Water's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Water's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Water's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Water's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Water's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Water is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Water's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.