Avalon Holdings Stock Price Prediction
| AWX Stock | USD 2.26 0.10 4.63% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Avalon Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Avalon Holdings shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Avalon Holdings' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Avalon Holdings and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Avalon Holdings' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Avalon Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Avalon Holdings' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Avalon Holdings based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Avalon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Avalon Holdings over a specific investment horizon. Using Avalon Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avalon Holdings from the perspective of Avalon Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Avalon Holdings. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Avalon Holdings to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Avalon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Avalon Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 2.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Avalon |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avalon Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Avalon Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Avalon Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avalon Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Avalon Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Avalon Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Avalon Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avalon Holdings' historical news coverage. Avalon Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.11 and 5.31, respectively. We have considered Avalon Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Avalon Holdings is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avalon Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Avalon Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Avalon Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avalon Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avalon Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.05 | 3.18 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2.26 | 2.16 | 0.00 |
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Avalon Holdings Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April Avalon Holdings is traded for 2.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Avalon is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Avalon Holdings is about 1370.69%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.27. About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.24. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Avalon Holdings has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 700.02. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.46. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Avalon Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Avalon Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Avalon Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avalon Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Avalon Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avalon Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MMS | Maximus | 0.24 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.40 | (1.92) | 7.92 | |
| CBZ | CBIZ Inc | 0.45 | 10 per month | 1.40 | 0.12 | 2.18 | (2.96) | 11.93 | |
| FA | First Advantage Corp | (0.02) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.79 | (2.26) | 9.83 | |
| CASS | Cass Information Systems | 0.49 | 5 per month | 2.00 | (0.01) | 2.87 | (2.89) | 16.34 | |
| DPUI | Discount Print USA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 14.29 | (12.50) | 422.22 |
Avalon Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Avalon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avalon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avalon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Avalon Holdings Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Avalon Holdings stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Avalon Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Avalon Holdings based on analysis of Avalon Holdings hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Avalon Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Avalon Holdings's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 5.59 | 6.11 | 7.31 | 7.89 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 7.1 | 7.93 | 8.6 | 6.64 |
Story Coverage note for Avalon Holdings
The number of cover stories for Avalon Holdings depends on current market conditions and Avalon Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avalon Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avalon Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Avalon Holdings Short Properties
Avalon Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Avalon Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Avalon Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Avalon Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avalon Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.2 M |
Check out Avalon Holdings Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Avalon Stock please use our How to Invest in Avalon Holdings guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Complementary Tools for Avalon Stock analysis
When running Avalon Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Avalon Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avalon Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Avalon Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avalon Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avalon Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avalon Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Avalon Holdings' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Avalon Holdings. If investors know Avalon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Avalon Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.24) | Earnings Share (0.46) | Revenue Per Share 20.65 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.19) | Return On Assets (0) |
The market value of Avalon Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avalon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avalon Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avalon Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avalon Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avalon Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avalon Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Avalon Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avalon Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.