Bright Horizons Family Stock Price Prediction
| BFAM Stock | USD 107.62 1.75 1.65% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
47
Oversold | Overbought |
Bright Horizons Family stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Bright Horizons shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Bright Horizons' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Bright Horizons and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Bright Horizons' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bright Horizons Family, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Bright Horizons' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.52 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.08 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.95 | Wall Street Target Price 105.11 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Bright Horizons based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Bright stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Bright Horizons over a specific investment horizon. Using Bright Horizons hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bright Horizons Family from the perspective of Bright Horizons response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bright Horizons using Bright Horizons' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bright using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bright Horizons' stock price.
Bright Horizons Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Bright Horizons' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Bright. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Bright Horizons stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Bright Horizons may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Bright Horizons and may potentially protect profits, hedge Bright Horizons with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 95.5192 | Short Percent 0.0217 | Short Ratio 3.69 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.9 M | 50 Day MA 110.8722 |
Bright Horizons Family Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Bright Horizons' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bright. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bright can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bright Horizons Family. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Bright Horizons' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Bright Horizons.
Bright Horizons Implied Volatility | 42.51 |
Bright Horizons' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bright Horizons Family stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bright Horizons' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bright Horizons stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bright Horizons' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Bright Horizons. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Bright Horizons to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Bright because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Bright Horizons after-hype prediction price | USD 107.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bright contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bright Horizons Family will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.66% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Bright Horizons trading at USD 107.62, that is roughly USD 2.86 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bright Horizons' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bright Horizons Family options at the current volatility level of 42.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Bright |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bright Horizons' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Bright Horizons After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bright Horizons at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bright Horizons or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bright Horizons, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bright Horizons Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bright Horizons' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bright Horizons' historical news coverage. Bright Horizons' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 105.63 and 109.61, respectively. We have considered Bright Horizons' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bright Horizons is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bright Horizons Family is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bright Horizons Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bright Horizons is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bright Horizons backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bright Horizons, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.12 | 1.99 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
107.62 | 107.62 | 0.00 |
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Bright Horizons Hype Timeline
Bright Horizons Family is currently traded for 107.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.22, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Bright is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 107.57%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.12%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bright Horizons is about 310.94%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 107.54. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.76. Bright Horizons Family had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Bright Horizons Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Bright Horizons Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bright Horizons' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bright Horizons' future price movements. Getting to know how Bright Horizons' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bright Horizons may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PRRWF | Park Lawn | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.29 | (4.14) | 15.38 | |
| FTDR | Frontdoor | (0.57) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.69 | (2.42) | 7.54 | |
| ROL | Rollins | (1.09) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.83 | (1.98) | 7.87 | |
| MED | MEDIFAST INC | (0.90) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.12 | (5.79) | 22.33 |
Bright Horizons Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bright price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bright using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bright charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Bright Horizons Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Bright Horizons stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Bright Horizons Family, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Bright Horizons based on analysis of Bright Horizons hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Bright Horizons's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Bright Horizons's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.00494 | 4.77E-4 | 5.48E-4 | 5.21E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.33 | 1.82 | 2.25 | 1.66 |
Story Coverage note for Bright Horizons
The number of cover stories for Bright Horizons depends on current market conditions and Bright Horizons' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bright Horizons is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bright Horizons' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bright Horizons Short Properties
Bright Horizons' future price predictability will typically decrease when Bright Horizons' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bright Horizons Family often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bright Horizons' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bright Horizons' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 109.3 M |
Check out Bright Horizons Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Bright Horizons Family information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Bright Horizons' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.
Complementary Tools for Bright Stock analysis
When running Bright Horizons' price analysis, check to measure Bright Horizons' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bright Horizons is operating at the current time. Most of Bright Horizons' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bright Horizons' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bright Horizons' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bright Horizons to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bright Horizons' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bright Horizons. If investors know Bright will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bright Horizons listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Earnings Share 1.28 | Revenue Per Share 41.898 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.163 | Return On Assets 0.0261 |
The market value of Bright Horizons Family is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bright that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bright Horizons' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bright Horizons' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bright Horizons' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bright Horizons' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bright Horizons' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bright Horizons is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bright Horizons' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.