Baidu Inc Stock Price Prediction
BIDU Stock | USD 104.99 1.33 1.28% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Baidu Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Baidu shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Baidu's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Baidu and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Baidu's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Baidu Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Baidu's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.57) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.36 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11.15 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.3 | Wall Street Target Price 162.49 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Baidu based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Baidu stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Baidu over a specific investment horizon. Using Baidu hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Baidu Inc from the perspective of Baidu response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Baidu using Baidu's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Baidu using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Baidu's stock price.
Baidu Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Baidu's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Baidu. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Baidu stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Baidu may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Baidu and may potentially protect profits, hedge Baidu with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 122.5606 | Short Percent 0.0337 | Short Ratio 1.85 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.1 M | 50 Day MA 104.7834 |
Baidu Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Baidu's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Baidu. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Baidu can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Baidu Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Baidu's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Baidu.
Baidu Implied Volatility | 56.33 |
Baidu's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Baidu Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Baidu's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Baidu stock will not fluctuate a lot when Baidu's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Baidu. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Baidu to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Baidu because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Baidu after-hype prediction price | USD 104.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Baidu contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Baidu Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.52% per day over the life of the 2024-03-28 option contract. With Baidu trading at USD 104.99, that is roughly USD 3.7 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Baidu's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Baidu Inc options at the current volatility level of 56.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Baidu |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Baidu's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Baidu After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Baidu at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Baidu or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Baidu, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Baidu Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Baidu's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Baidu's historical news coverage. Baidu's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 102.40 and 107.58, respectively. We have considered Baidu's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Baidu is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Baidu Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Baidu Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Baidu is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Baidu backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Baidu, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.59 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 11 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
104.99 | 104.99 | 0.00 |
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Baidu Hype Timeline
Baidu Inc is currently traded for 104.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Baidu is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Baidu is about 1079.17%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 105.03. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.07. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Baidu Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.66. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.71. The firm last dividend was issued on the 30th of September 2010. Baidu had 10:1 split on the 12th of May 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Baidu Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Baidu Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Baidu's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Baidu's future price movements. Getting to know how Baidu rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Baidu may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
Z | Zillow Group Class | 1.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.52 | (3.53) | 21.25 | |
OB | Outbrain | (0.08) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 6.16 | (5.88) | 15.37 | |
ZH | Zhihu Inc ADR | 0.06 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 5.48 | (6.41) | 13.45 | |
DOYU | DouYu International Holdings | (0.04) | 6 per month | 3.61 | (0.02) | 7.32 | (6.90) | 32.04 |
Baidu Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Baidu price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Baidu using various technical indicators. When you analyze Baidu charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Baidu Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Baidu stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Baidu Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Baidu based on analysis of Baidu hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Baidu's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Baidu's related companies. 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0752 | 0.0676 | 0.0421 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.63 | 2.2 | 2.09 |
Story Coverage note for Baidu
The number of cover stories for Baidu depends on current market conditions and Baidu's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Baidu is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Baidu's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Baidu Short Properties
Baidu's future price predictability will typically decrease when Baidu's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Baidu Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Baidu's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Baidu's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 354.6 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 205.4 B |
Check out Baidu Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Baidu Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Baidu's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.
Complementary Tools for Baidu Stock analysis
When running Baidu's price analysis, check to measure Baidu's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Baidu is operating at the current time. Most of Baidu's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Baidu's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Baidu's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Baidu to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Baidu's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Baidu. If investors know Baidu will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Baidu listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.57) | Earnings Share 7.71 | Revenue Per Share 383.607 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.057 | Return On Assets 0.0343 |
The market value of Baidu Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Baidu that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Baidu's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Baidu's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Baidu's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Baidu's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Baidu's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Baidu is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Baidu's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.