Bilibili Stock Price Prediction

BILI Stock  USD 11.20  0.17  1.54%   
As of 29th of March 2024, The relative strength index (RSI) of Bilibili's share price is at 58 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Bilibili, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

58

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Bilibili stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Bilibili shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Bilibili's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Bilibili and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Bilibili's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Bilibili, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Bilibili's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.22)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.20)
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.3
Wall Street Target Price
14.88
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.26)
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Bilibili based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Bilibili stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Bilibili over a specific investment horizon. Using Bilibili hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bilibili from the perspective of Bilibili response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Bilibili using Bilibili's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Bilibili using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Bilibili's stock price.

Bilibili Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Bilibili's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Bilibili. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Bilibili stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Bilibili may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Bilibili and may potentially protect profits, hedge Bilibili with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
13.2384
Short Percent
0.1069
Short Ratio
2.98
Shares Short Prior Month
26.1 M
50 Day MA
10.3486

Bilibili Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Bilibili's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Bilibili. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bilibili can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bilibili. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Bilibili's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Bilibili.

Bilibili Implied Volatility

    
  58.91  
Bilibili's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Bilibili stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Bilibili's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Bilibili stock will not fluctuate a lot when Bilibili's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Bilibili. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Bilibili to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Bilibili because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Bilibili after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.23  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Bilibili contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Bilibili will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.68% per day over the life of the 2024-04-05 option contract. With Bilibili trading at USD 11.2, that is roughly USD 0.41 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Bilibili's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Bilibili options at the current volatility level of 58.91%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Bilibili Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Bilibili Stock please use our How to Invest in Bilibili guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bilibili's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.1313.2717.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.9910.1214.26
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
19.4921.4223.78
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.21-0.16-0.08
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bilibili. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bilibili's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bilibili's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Bilibili.

Bilibili After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Bilibili at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bilibili or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Bilibili, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Bilibili Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Bilibili's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bilibili's historical news coverage. Bilibili's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.09 and 15.37, respectively. We have considered Bilibili's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.20
11.23
After-hype Price
15.37
Upside
Bilibili is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bilibili is based on 3 months time horizon.

Bilibili Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bilibili is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bilibili backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bilibili, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
4.13
  0.01 
 0.00  
9 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.20
11.23
0.27 
635.38  
Notes

Bilibili Hype Timeline

Bilibili is currently traded for 11.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Bilibili is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 11.23 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.27%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Bilibili is about 9968.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.20. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 22.53 B. Net Loss for the year was (4.82 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.85 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Bilibili Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Bilibili Stock please use our How to Invest in Bilibili guide.

Bilibili Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Bilibili's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bilibili's future price movements. Getting to know how Bilibili rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bilibili may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Bilibili Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Bilibili price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bilibili using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bilibili charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Bilibili Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Bilibili stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Bilibili, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Bilibili based on analysis of Bilibili hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Bilibili's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Bilibili's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Book Value Ratio5.183.714.264.05
Operating Cycle36.8757.5766.2162.67

Story Coverage note for Bilibili

The number of cover stories for Bilibili depends on current market conditions and Bilibili's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bilibili is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bilibili's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Bilibili Short Properties

Bilibili's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bilibili's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bilibili often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bilibili's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bilibili's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding412.2 M
When determining whether Bilibili offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bilibili's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bilibili Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bilibili Stock:
Check out Bilibili Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in Bilibili Stock please use our How to Invest in Bilibili guide.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Bilibili Stock analysis

When running Bilibili's price analysis, check to measure Bilibili's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bilibili is operating at the current time. Most of Bilibili's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bilibili's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bilibili's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bilibili to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Bilibili's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bilibili. If investors know Bilibili will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bilibili listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(1.62)
Revenue Per Share
54.519
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.034
Return On Assets
(0.08)
Return On Equity
(0.32)
The market value of Bilibili is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bilibili that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bilibili's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bilibili's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bilibili's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bilibili's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bilibili's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bilibili is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bilibili's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.