Builders Firstsource Stock Price Prediction
| BLDR Stock | USD 182.28 2.97 1.66% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Builders FirstSource stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Builders FirstSource shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Builders FirstSource's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Builders FirstSource and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Builders FirstSource's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Builders FirstSource, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Builders FirstSource's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.077 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.39 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.96 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.44 | Wall Street Target Price 214.45 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Builders FirstSource based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Builders stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Builders FirstSource over a specific investment horizon. Using Builders FirstSource hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Builders FirstSource from the perspective of Builders FirstSource response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Builders FirstSource using Builders FirstSource's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Builders using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Builders FirstSource's stock price.
Builders FirstSource Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Builders FirstSource's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Builders. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Builders FirstSource stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Builders FirstSource may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Builders FirstSource and may potentially protect profits, hedge Builders FirstSource with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 154.0961 | Short Percent 0.035 | Short Ratio 2.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.1 M | 50 Day MA 194.8016 |
Builders FirstSource Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Builders FirstSource's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Builders. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Builders can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Builders FirstSource. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Builders FirstSource's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Builders FirstSource.
Builders FirstSource Implied Volatility | 149.65 |
Builders FirstSource's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Builders FirstSource stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Builders FirstSource's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Builders FirstSource stock will not fluctuate a lot when Builders FirstSource's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Builders FirstSource. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Builders FirstSource to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Builders because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Builders FirstSource after-hype prediction price | USD 184.95 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Builders contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Builders FirstSource will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 9.35% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Builders FirstSource trading at USD 182.28, that is roughly USD 17.05 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Builders FirstSource's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Builders FirstSource options at the current volatility level of 149.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Builders |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Builders FirstSource's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Builders FirstSource After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Builders FirstSource at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Builders FirstSource or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Builders FirstSource, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Builders FirstSource Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Builders FirstSource's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Builders FirstSource's historical news coverage. Builders FirstSource's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 182.88 and 187.02, respectively. We have considered Builders FirstSource's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Builders FirstSource is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Builders FirstSource is based on 3 months time horizon.
Builders FirstSource Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Builders FirstSource is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Builders FirstSource backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Builders FirstSource, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.13 | 2.11 | 0.42 | 0.08 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
182.28 | 184.95 | 0.14 |
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Builders FirstSource Hype Timeline
Builders FirstSource is currently traded for 182.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Builders is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 184.95. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 65.12%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.13%. The volatility of related hype on Builders FirstSource is about 327.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 182.20. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Builders FirstSource was currently reported as 38.84. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.81. Builders FirstSource recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.94. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1086:995 split on the 17th of December 2009. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Builders FirstSource Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Builders FirstSource Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Builders FirstSource's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Builders FirstSource's future price movements. Getting to know how Builders FirstSource's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Builders FirstSource may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| APOG | Apogee Enterprises | (0.72) | 11 per month | 1.34 | 0.03 | 2.15 | (1.80) | 6.57 | |
| AZEK | Azek Company | 0.08 | 12 per month | 1.19 | 0.12 | 2.69 | (2.18) | 18.29 | |
| LII | Lennox International | 4.79 | 10 per month | 1.76 | 0.03 | 2.44 | (3.01) | 6.83 | |
| ROCK | Gibraltar Industries | (0.47) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.86 | (3.62) | 17.28 | |
| WMS | Advanced Drainage Systems | (2.38) | 11 per month | 1.32 | 0.12 | 2.95 | (2.49) | 17.80 | |
| TT | Trane Technologies plc | (7.46) | 12 per month | 0.61 | 0.16 | 2.10 | (1.28) | 9.21 | |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations | (1.65) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.08 | (3.27) | 8.11 | |
| JCI | Johnson Controls International | 0.29 | 10 per month | 1.70 | 0.09 | 2.14 | (2.04) | 7.31 | |
| MAS | Masco | 0.28 | 11 per month | 1.24 | 0.05 | 2.56 | (2.24) | 7.66 | |
| OC | Owens Corning | 0.80 | 12 per month | 1.81 | 0.06 | 2.74 | (2.72) | 10.53 |
Builders FirstSource Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Builders price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Builders using various technical indicators. When you analyze Builders charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Builders FirstSource Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Builders FirstSource stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Builders FirstSource, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Builders FirstSource based on analysis of Builders FirstSource hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Builders FirstSource's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Builders FirstSource's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 4.2E-5 | 0.00912 | 0.008664 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.87 | 1.25 | 1.31 |
Story Coverage note for Builders FirstSource
The number of cover stories for Builders FirstSource depends on current market conditions and Builders FirstSource's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Builders FirstSource is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Builders FirstSource's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Builders FirstSource Short Properties
Builders FirstSource's future price predictability will typically decrease when Builders FirstSource's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Builders FirstSource often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Builders FirstSource's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Builders FirstSource's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 129 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 66.2 M |
Check out Builders FirstSource Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Builders Stock, please use our How to Invest in Builders FirstSource guide.Note that the Builders FirstSource information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Builders FirstSource's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Complementary Tools for Builders Stock analysis
When running Builders FirstSource's price analysis, check to measure Builders FirstSource's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Builders FirstSource is operating at the current time. Most of Builders FirstSource's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Builders FirstSource's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Builders FirstSource's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Builders FirstSource to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Builders FirstSource's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Builders FirstSource. If investors know Builders will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Builders FirstSource listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.077 | Earnings Share 11.94 | Revenue Per Share 133.806 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.05) | Return On Assets 0.129 |
The market value of Builders FirstSource is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Builders that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Builders FirstSource's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Builders FirstSource's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Builders FirstSource's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Builders FirstSource's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Builders FirstSource's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Builders FirstSource is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Builders FirstSource's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.