ConAgra Foods stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ConAgra Foods shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ConAgra Foods' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ConAgra Foods and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ConAgra Foods' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ConAgra Foods, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ConAgra Foods based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ConAgra stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ConAgra Foods over a specific investment horizon. Using ConAgra Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ConAgra Foods from the perspective of ConAgra Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ConAgra Foods using ConAgra Foods' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ConAgra using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ConAgra Foods' stock price.
ConAgra Foods Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in ConAgra Foods' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ConAgra. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ConAgra Foods stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ConAgra Foods may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ConAgra Foods and may potentially protect profits, hedge ConAgra Foods with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
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ConAgra Foods Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ConAgra Foods' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ConAgra. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ConAgra can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ConAgra Foods. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ConAgra Foods' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ConAgra Foods.
ConAgra Foods Implied Volatility
ConAgra Foods' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ConAgra Foods stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ConAgra Foods' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ConAgra Foods stock will not fluctuate a lot when ConAgra Foods' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ConAgra Foods. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ConAgra Foods to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ConAgra because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
ConAgra Foods after-hype prediction price
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ConAgra contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ConAgra Foods will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.59% per day over the life of the 2023-09-22 option contract. With ConAgra Foods trading at USD28.92, that is roughly USD0.75. If you think that the market is fully incorporating ConAgra Foods' daily price movement you should consider acquiring ConAgra Foods options at the current volatility level of 41.48%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.Check out ConAgra Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in ConAgra Stock please use our How to Invest in ConAgra Foods guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ConAgra Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ConAgra Foods in the context of predictive analytics.
ConAgra Foods After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ConAgra Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ConAgra Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ConAgra Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
ConAgra Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ConAgra Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ConAgra Foods' historical news coverage. ConAgra Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 27.92 and 29.92, respectively. We have considered ConAgra Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
ConAgra Foods Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as ConAgra Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ConAgra Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ConAgra Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
|Expected Return||Period Volatility||Hype Elasticity||Related Elasticity||News Density||Related Density||Expected Hype|
|0.25||1.00||0.04||0.01||10 Events / Month||4 Events / Month||In about 10 days|
|Latest traded price||Expected after-news price||Potential return on next major news||Average after-hype volatility|
ConAgra Foods Hype TimelineOn the 22nd of September ConAgra Foods is traded for 28.92. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. ConAgra forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.25%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to ConAgra Foods is about 2105.26%. The volatility of related hype on ConAgra Foods is about 2105.26% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 28.91. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of ConAgra Foods was currently reported as 18.32. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.83. ConAgra Foods last dividend was issued on the 28th of July 2023. The entity had 1285:1000 split on the 10th of November 2016. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out ConAgra Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in ConAgra Stock please use our How to Invest in ConAgra Foods guide.
ConAgra Foods Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ConAgra Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ConAgra Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how ConAgra Foods rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ConAgra Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
ConAgra Foods Additional Predictive ModulesMost predictive techniques to examine ConAgra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ConAgra using various technical indicators. When you analyze ConAgra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
About ConAgra Foods Predictive Indicators
Story Coverage note for ConAgra Foods
The number of cover stories for ConAgra Foods depends on current market conditions and ConAgra Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ConAgra Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ConAgra Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ConAgra Foods Short Properties
ConAgra Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when ConAgra Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ConAgra Foods often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ConAgra Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ConAgra Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Check out ConAgra Foods Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in ConAgra Stock please use our How to Invest in ConAgra Foods guide. Note that the ConAgra Foods information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ConAgra Foods' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for ConAgra Stock analysis
When running ConAgra Foods' price analysis, check to measure ConAgra Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConAgra Foods is operating at the current time. Most of ConAgra Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConAgra Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConAgra Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConAgra Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Is ConAgra Foods' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConAgra Foods. If investors know ConAgra will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConAgra Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
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The market value of ConAgra Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConAgra that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConAgra Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConAgra Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConAgra Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConAgra Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConAgra Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ConAgra Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConAgra Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.