Avis Budget Stock Future Price Prediction

CAR -  USA Stock  

USD 85.36  3.80  4.66%

Avis Budget Group stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Avis Budget shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Avis Budget's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Avis Budget and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Avis Budget's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Avis Budget Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Avis Budget Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Avis Budget based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Avis Budget stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Avis Budget over a specific investment horizon. Using Avis Budget hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avis Budget Group from the perspective of Avis Budget response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Avis Budget Revenue to Assets are relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Avis Budget reported last year Revenue to Assets of 0.31. As of 07/29/2021, Quick Ratio is likely to grow to 0.82, while Calculated Tax Rate is likely to drop (6.17) .
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Avis Budget. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Avis Budget to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Avis Budget because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Avis Budget after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 85.38  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Avis Budget's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Avis Budget in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
80.6984.1687.63
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
85.7689.2392.71
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
75.0085.00100.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.864.344.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Avis Budget. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Avis Budget's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Avis Budget's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Avis Budget Group.

Avis Budget After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Avis Budget at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avis Budget or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Avis Budget, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Avis Budget Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Avis Budget's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avis Budget's historical news coverage. Avis Budget's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 81.91 and 88.85, respectively. We have considered Avis Budget's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
85.36
29th of July 2021
85.38
After-hype Price
88.85
Upside
Avis Budget is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avis Budget Group is based on 3 months time horizon.

Avis Budget Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Avis Budget is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avis Budget backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avis Budget, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.09  3.47  0.26   0.02  10 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
85.3685.380.30 
121.33  

Avis Budget Hype Timeline

On the 29th of July Avis Budget Group is traded for 85.36. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.26 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. Avis Budget is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with price expected to drop to 85.38. The average volatility ofmedia hypeimpact on the company stock price is about 121.33%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.3% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Avis Budget is about 1369.74% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 85.34. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.32. Avis Budget Group recorded a loss per share of 9.99. The entity next dividend is scheduled to be issued on the 23rd of February 2006. The firm had 1:10 split on the 5th of September 2006. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 10 days.
Continue to Avis Budget Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Avis Budget Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Avis Budget's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avis Budget's future price movements. Getting to know how Avis Budget rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avis Budget may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Air Lease Corp 1.19 5 per month 0.00 (0.1)  3.66 (3.30)  12.47 
AeroCentury Corp 0.53 3 per month 5.06  0.0316  11.58 (8.06)  27.12 
Cai International(1.51) 6 per month 1.50  0.08  3.50 (3.43)  47.44 
Flexshopper 0.19 10 per month 0.00 (0.032)  6.55 (4.69)  16.49 
Fly Leasing 0.04 2 per month 0.00 (0.28)  0.24 (0.18)  0.59 
TD Holdings 0.00 7 per month 0.00 (0.11)  7.89 (9.91)  36.05 
Fortress Transn Infras 1.03 4 per month 2.04 (0.0139)  3.94 (3.76)  9.64 
Herc Holdings(2.85) 7 per month 2.42  0.06  4.39 (3.63)  10.86 
GATX Corp(0.90) 7 per month 0.00 (0.07)  2.24 (2.82)  8.07 

Avis Budget Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Avis Budget price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avis Budget using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avis Budget charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Avis Budget Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Avis Budget stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Avis Budget Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Avis Budget based on analysis of Avis Budget hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Avis Budget's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Avis Budget's related companies.
 2018 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity33.2419.8720.68
Interest Coverage1.511.381.33

Story Coverage note for Avis Budget

The number of cover stories for Avis Budget depends on current market conditions and Avis Budget's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avis Budget is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avis Budget's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Latest Perspective on Avis Budget

Avis Budget Short Properties

Avis Budget's future price predictability will typically decrease when Avis Budget's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Avis Budget Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Avis Budget's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avis Budget's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out11.61%
Short Percent Of Float15.98%
Float Shares50.19M
Shares Short Prior Month7.94M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.61M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.31M
Date Short Interest28th of May 2021
Continue to Avis Budget Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Avis Budget Group information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Avis Budget's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.

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The market value of Avis Budget Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Avis Budget that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Avis Budget's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Avis Budget's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Avis Budget's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Avis Budget Group underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Avis Budget's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Avis Budget value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Avis Budget's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.