Community Stock Future Price Prediction

CBU -  USA Stock  

USD 65.70  1.08  1.67%

Community Bank System stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Community Bank shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Community Bank's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Community Bank and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Community Bank's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Community Bank System, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Community Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Community Bank based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Community stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Community Bank over a specific investment horizon. Using Community Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Community Bank System from the perspective of Community Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Community Bank using Community Bank's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Community using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Community Bank's stock price.
Community Bank Enterprise Value over EBITDA is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Community Bank reported Enterprise Value over EBITDA of 7.43 in 2021. Free Cash Flow per Share is likely to gain to 3.59 in 2022, whereas Book Value per Share is likely to drop 37.58 in 2022.

Community Bank Implied Volatility

    
  34.84  
Community Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Community Bank System stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Community Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Community Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when Community Bank's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Community Bank. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Community Bank to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Community because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Community Bank after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 65.75  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Community Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Community Bank in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
59.1370.8372.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
59.2361.0162.78
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
74.0076.0080.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.463.483.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Community Bank. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Community Bank's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Community Bank's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Community Bank System.

Community Bank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Community Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Community Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Community Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Community Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Community Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Community Bank's historical news coverage. Community Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.98 and 67.52, respectively. We have considered Community Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 65.70
65.75
After-hype Price
67.52
Upside
Community Bank is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Community Bank System is based on 3 months time horizon.

Community Bank Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Community Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Community Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Community Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
  0.14  1.52  0.11   0.00  10 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
65.7065.750.08 
197.40  

Community Bank Hype Timeline

On the 27th of May Community Bank System is traded for 65.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Community is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 65.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 197.4%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.08% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Community Bank is about 7600.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 65.7. The company reported the last year's revenue of 630.92 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 183.45 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 629.49 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 10 days.
Continue to Community Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Community Bank Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Community Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Community Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Community Bank rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Community Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MBINMerchants Bancorp(0.02) 2 per month 0.00 (0.1)  2.69 (3.30)  9.76 

Community Bank Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Community price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Community using various technical indicators. When you analyze Community charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Community Bank Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Community Bank stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Community Bank System, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Community Bank based on analysis of Community Bank hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Community Bank's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Community Bank's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover4.333.734.294.67
Calculated Tax Rate19.2420.0923.126.56

Story Coverage note for Community Bank

The number of cover stories for Community Bank depends on current market conditions and Community Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Community Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Community Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Community Bank Short Properties

Community Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when Community Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Community Bank System often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Community Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Community Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.77%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.69
Short Percent Of Float3.82%
Float Shares53.26M
Shares Short Prior Month1.63M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day246.52k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month237.53k
Date Short Interest29th of April 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.68%
Continue to Community Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Community Bank System information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Community Bank's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Complementary Tools for Community Stock analysis

When running Community Bank System price analysis, check to measure Community Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Community Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Community Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Community Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Community Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Community Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Community Bank's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Community Bank. If investors know Community will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Community Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Community Bank System is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Community that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Community Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Community Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Community Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Community Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Community Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Community Bank value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Community Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.