Canopy Growth Corp Stock Price Prediction

CGC Stock  USD 9.55  2.32  32.09%   
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Canopy Growth's share price is approaching 32 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Canopy Growth, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

32

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Canopy Growth Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Canopy Growth shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Canopy Growth's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Canopy Growth and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Canopy Growth's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Canopy Growth Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Canopy Growth's stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.34)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(3.84)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(1.07)
Wall Street Target Price
3.62
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.37)
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Canopy Growth based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Canopy stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Canopy Growth over a specific investment horizon. Using Canopy Growth hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Canopy Growth Corp from the perspective of Canopy Growth response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Canopy Growth using Canopy Growth's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Canopy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Canopy Growth's stock price.

Canopy Growth Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Canopy Growth's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Canopy. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Canopy Growth stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Canopy Growth may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Canopy Growth and may potentially protect profits, hedge Canopy Growth with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
5.4598
Short Percent
0.0625
Short Ratio
1.41
Shares Short Prior Month
4.6 M
50 Day MA
4.058

Canopy Growth Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Canopy Growth's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Canopy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Canopy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Canopy Growth Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Canopy Growth's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Canopy Growth.

Canopy Growth Implied Volatility

    
  294.6  
Canopy Growth's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Canopy Growth Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Canopy Growth's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Canopy Growth stock will not fluctuate a lot when Canopy Growth's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Canopy Growth. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Canopy Growth to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Canopy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Canopy Growth after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.25  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Canopy contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Canopy Growth Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 18.41% per day over the life of the 2024-03-28 option contract. With Canopy Growth trading at USD 9.55, that is roughly USD 1.76 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Canopy Growth's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Canopy Growth Corp options at the current volatility level of 294.6%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Canopy Growth Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Canopy Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.234.5616.17
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.2211.2522.86
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
1.221.341.49
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-1.35-0.32-0.37
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Canopy Growth. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Canopy Growth's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Canopy Growth's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Canopy Growth Corp.

Canopy Growth After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Canopy Growth at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Canopy Growth or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Canopy Growth, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Canopy Growth Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Canopy Growth's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Canopy Growth's historical news coverage. Canopy Growth's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.46 and 20.86, respectively. We have considered Canopy Growth's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
9.55
9.25
After-hype Price
20.86
Upside
Canopy Growth is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Canopy Growth Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Canopy Growth Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Canopy Growth is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Canopy Growth backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Canopy Growth, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  1.56 
11.61
  0.30 
  2.27 
10 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.55
9.25
3.14 
6,111  
Notes

Canopy Growth Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Canopy Growth Corp is traded for 9.55. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.3, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 2.27. Canopy is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 9.25. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -3.14%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.56%. The volatility of related hype on Canopy Growth is about 797.15%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.82. About 19.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.64. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Canopy Growth Corp recorded a loss per share of 15.65. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 20th of December 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Canopy Growth Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Canopy Growth Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Canopy Growth's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Canopy Growth's future price movements. Getting to know how Canopy Growth rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Canopy Growth may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AAgilent Technologies 3.49 11 per month 1.43 (0.02) 2.27 (2.26) 5.92 
MBIOMustang Bio(0.04)3 per month 0.00 (0.12) 5.30 (8.49) 20.58 
MBRXMoleculin Biotech 5.79 9 per month 0.00 (0.11) 11.19 (11.18) 34.21 
CLVRWClever Leaves Holdings 0.01 2 per month 7.03  0.17  29.03 (12.50) 74.95 
MCRBSeres Therapeutics 0.01 10 per month 0.00 (0.09) 8.70 (8.33) 29.80 
MDGLMadrigal Pharmaceuticals 4.05 8 per month 4.45  0.04  8.89 (7.09) 24.70 
EQEquillium(0.15)10 per month 5.96  0.20  20.33 (10.80) 70.42 
KAKineta Inc(0.02)7 per month 0.00 (0.26) 8.68 (9.84) 72.56 
ME23Andme Holding Co(0.03)11 per month 0.00 (0.11) 10.61 (10.00) 34.64 

Canopy Growth Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Canopy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Canopy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Canopy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Canopy Growth Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Canopy Growth stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Canopy Growth Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Canopy Growth based on analysis of Canopy Growth hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Canopy Growth's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Canopy Growth's related companies.
 2020 2021 2022 2024 (projected)
Price Book Value Ratio42.8910.3410.718.15
Operating Cycle341.72172.23192.33686.36

Story Coverage note for Canopy Growth

The number of cover stories for Canopy Growth depends on current market conditions and Canopy Growth's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Canopy Growth is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Canopy Growth's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Canopy Growth Short Properties

Canopy Growth's future price predictability will typically decrease when Canopy Growth's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Canopy Growth Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Canopy Growth's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Canopy Growth's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding463.7 M
Cash And Short Term Investments782.6 M
When determining whether Canopy Growth Corp offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Canopy Growth's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Canopy Growth Corp Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Canopy Growth Corp Stock:
Check out Canopy Growth Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Canopy Growth Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Canopy Growth's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.

Complementary Tools for Canopy Stock analysis

When running Canopy Growth's price analysis, check to measure Canopy Growth's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canopy Growth is operating at the current time. Most of Canopy Growth's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canopy Growth's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canopy Growth's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canopy Growth to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Canopy Growth's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Canopy Growth. If investors know Canopy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Canopy Growth listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(15.65)
Revenue Per Share
5.589
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.07)
Return On Assets
(0.09)
Return On Equity
(1.22)
The market value of Canopy Growth Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Canopy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Canopy Growth's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Canopy Growth's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Canopy Growth's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Canopy Growth's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Canopy Growth's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Canopy Growth is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Canopy Growth's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.