China Mengniu Dairy Stock Price Prediction

CIADF Stock  USD 2.50  0.00  0.00%   
As of 28th of March 2024 the relative strength index (rsi) of China Mengniu's share price is below 20 suggesting that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Oversold Vs Overbought

0

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
China Mengniu Dairy stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of China Mengniu shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of China Mengniu's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of China Mengniu and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from China Mengniu's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with China Mengniu Dairy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether pink sheet price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of China Mengniu based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The China stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on China Mengniu over a specific investment horizon. Using China Mengniu hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Mengniu Dairy from the perspective of China Mengniu response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in China Mengniu. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in China Mengniu to buy its pink sheet at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying China because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell pink sheets at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

China Mengniu after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 2.5  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out China Mengniu Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Mengniu's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.122.522.92
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
2.112.502.90
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
2.502.502.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Mengniu. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Mengniu's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Mengniu's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Mengniu Dairy.

China Mengniu After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of China Mengniu at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Mengniu or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of China Mengniu, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

China Mengniu Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting China Mengniu's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Mengniu's historical news coverage. China Mengniu's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.10 and 2.90, respectively. We have considered China Mengniu's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
2.50
2.50
After-hype Price
2.90
Upside
China Mengniu is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Mengniu Dairy is based on 3 months time horizon.

China Mengniu Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as China Mengniu is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Mengniu backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Mengniu, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
0.40
 0.00  
  0.03 
0 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
2.50
2.50
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

China Mengniu Hype Timeline

China Mengniu Dairy is currently traded for 2.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.03. China is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on China Mengniu is about 72.73%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.47. About 24.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of China Mengniu was currently reported as 9.83. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.85. China Mengniu Dairy last dividend was issued on the 10th of June 2022. The entity had 2:1 split on the 13th of October 2015. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out China Mengniu Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

China Mengniu Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to China Mengniu's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Mengniu's future price movements. Getting to know how China Mengniu rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Mengniu may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

China Mengniu Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About China Mengniu Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of China Mengniu stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as China Mengniu Dairy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of China Mengniu based on analysis of China Mengniu hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to China Mengniu's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to China Mengniu's related companies.

Story Coverage note for China Mengniu

The number of cover stories for China Mengniu depends on current market conditions and China Mengniu's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Mengniu is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Mengniu's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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China Mengniu Short Properties

China Mengniu's future price predictability will typically decrease when China Mengniu's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Mengniu Dairy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Mengniu's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Mengniu's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares OutstandingB
Check out China Mengniu Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the China Mengniu Dairy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Mengniu's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.

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When running China Mengniu's price analysis, check to measure China Mengniu's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Mengniu is operating at the current time. Most of China Mengniu's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Mengniu's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Mengniu's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Mengniu to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between China Mengniu's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if China Mengniu is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Mengniu's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.