Ciena Stock Future Price Prediction

CIEN -  USA Stock  

USD 58.29  0.46  0.80%

Ciena Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ciena Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ciena Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ciena Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ciena Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ciena Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Ciena Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ciena Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ciena stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ciena Corp over a specific investment horizon. Using Ciena Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ciena Corp from the perspective of Ciena Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Ciena Corp Inventory Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Inventory Turnover is estimated at 4.95. Operating Margin is expected to rise to 13.39 this year, although the value of Accounts Payable Turnover will most likely fall to 9.69.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ciena Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ciena Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ciena because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Ciena Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 58.29  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ciena Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ciena Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
52.4664.1065.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
56.5158.3860.25
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
50.0061.2770.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (6)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.422.482.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ciena Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ciena Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ciena Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Ciena Corp.

Ciena Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ciena Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ciena Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Ciena Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Ciena Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ciena Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ciena Corp's historical news coverage. Ciena Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.42 and 60.16, respectively. We have considered Ciena Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
58.29
3rd of August 2021
58.29
After-hype Price
60.16
Upside
Ciena Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ciena Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ciena Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Ciena Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ciena Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ciena Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.22  1.87  0.05   0.01  9 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
58.2958.290.00 
813.04  

Ciena Corp Hype Timeline

Ciena Corp is currently traded for 58.29. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ciena forecasted not to react to the next headlinewith price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Ciena Corp is about 4333.16%. The volatility of related hype on Ciena Corp is about 4333.16% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 58.28. About 96.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Ciena Corp was currently reported as 17.38. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.03. Ciena Corp had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:7 split on the 25th of September 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 9 days.
Continue to Ciena Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Ciena Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ciena Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ciena Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Ciena Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ciena Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Knowles Corp(0.02) 4 per month 0.00 (0.09)  1.85 (1.89)  4.86 
Dasan Zhone Solutions 0.09 3 per month 3.22  0.0361  6.27 (4.41)  14.75 
EXCEL CORP 0.0016 7 per month 17.10  0.09  56.06 (38.65)  247.68 
Exfo Inc 0.08 7 per month 0.71  0.11  2.16 (1.85)  66.21 
Extreme Networks(0.56) 9 per month 3.32 (0.0012)  5.33 (4.39)  17.31 
Frequency Elcts(0.37) 10 per month 0.00 (0.10)  2.61 (3.21)  9.11 
Franklin Wireless CO 0.40 9 per month 0.00 (0.18)  3.98 (5.90)  17.01 
Blonder Tongue Laboratories 0.01 21 per month 4.00  0.06  9.93 (6.99)  25.79 
Hewlett Packard Enterprise(0.02) 9 per month 0.00 (0.1)  2.34 (2.45)  7.77 

Ciena Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ciena price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ciena using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ciena charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Ciena Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Ciena Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ciena Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ciena Corp based on analysis of Ciena Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ciena Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ciena Corp's related companies.
 2018 2019 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.340.290.35
Interest Coverage14.5821.2820.66

Story Coverage note for Ciena Corp

The number of cover stories for Ciena Corp depends on current market conditions and Ciena Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ciena Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ciena Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ciena Corp Short Properties

Ciena Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ciena Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ciena Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ciena Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ciena Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.00%
Short Percent Of Float3.03%
Float Shares153.21M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day998.29k
Shares Short Prior Month4.65M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.35M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2021
Continue to Ciena Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Ciena Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ciena Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

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The market value of Ciena Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ciena that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ciena Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ciena Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ciena Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ciena Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ciena Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Ciena Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ciena Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.