Comtech Stock Future Price Prediction

CMTL
 Stock
  

USD 11.25  0.37  3.18%   

Comtech Telecom stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Comtech Telecom shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Comtech Telecom's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Comtech Telecom and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Comtech Telecom's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Comtech Telecom, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Comtech Telecom Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Comtech Telecom based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Comtech stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Comtech Telecom over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
5.87
EPS Estimate Current Year
(1.47) 
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.20) 
Wall Street Target Price
14.38
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
(0.10) 
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.13) 
Using Comtech Telecom hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Comtech Telecom from the perspective of Comtech Telecom response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Comtech Telecom using Comtech Telecom's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Comtech using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Comtech Telecom's stock price.
Comtech Telecom Receivables Turnover is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Receivables Turnover is estimated at 4.76. Inventory Turnover is expected to hike to 3.61 this year, although the value of Return on Investment will most likely fall to (4.94) .

Comtech Telecom Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Comtech Telecom's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Comtech. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Comtech Telecom stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Comtech Telecom may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Comtech Telecom and may potentially protect profits, hedge Comtech Telecom with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
12.66
Short Percent
0.0227
Short Ratio
4.66
Shares Short Prior Month
714.6 K
50 Day MA
10.59
Shares Short
521.5 K

Comtech Telecom Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Comtech Telecom's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Comtech. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Comtech can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Comtech Telecom. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Comtech Telecom's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Comtech Telecom.

Comtech Telecom Implied Volatility

    
  161.0  
Comtech Telecom's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Comtech Telecom stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Comtech Telecom's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Comtech Telecom stock will not fluctuate a lot when Comtech Telecom's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Comtech Telecom. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Comtech Telecom to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Comtech because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Comtech Telecom after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 11.59  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comtech Telecom's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Comtech Telecom in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
10.4615.7218.97
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
8.1611.4114.66
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
27.0030.3336.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.480.500.53
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Comtech Telecom. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Comtech Telecom's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Comtech Telecom's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Comtech Telecom.

Comtech Telecom After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Comtech Telecom at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Comtech Telecom or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Comtech Telecom, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Comtech Telecom Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Comtech Telecom's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Comtech Telecom's historical news coverage. Comtech Telecom's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.34 and 14.84, respectively. We have considered Comtech Telecom's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 11.25
11.59
After-hype Price
14.84
Upside
Comtech Telecom is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Comtech Telecom is based on 3 months time horizon.

Comtech Telecom Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Comtech Telecom is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Comtech Telecom backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Comtech Telecom, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.10  3.23   0.02    0.15  10 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.2511.590.26 
1,346  

Comtech Telecom Hype Timeline

Comtech Telecom is currently traded for 11.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. Comtech is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 11.59. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.26% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Comtech Telecom is about 215.69% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 11.1. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.63. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Comtech Telecom has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 328.11. The entity recorded a loss per share of 3.36. The firm last dividend was issued on the 18th of October 2022. Comtech Telecom had 3:2 split on the 5th of April 2005. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Continue to Comtech Telecom Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Comtech Telecom Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Comtech Telecom's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Comtech Telecom's future price movements. Getting to know how Comtech Telecom rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Comtech Telecom may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Comtech Telecom Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Comtech price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Comtech using various technical indicators. When you analyze Comtech charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Comtech Telecom Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Comtech Telecom stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Comtech Telecom, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Comtech Telecom based on analysis of Comtech Telecom hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Comtech Telecom's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Comtech Telecom's related companies.
 2019 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.270.230.32
Interest Coverage2.592.332.39

Story Coverage note for Comtech Telecom

The number of cover stories for Comtech Telecom depends on current market conditions and Comtech Telecom's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Comtech Telecom is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Comtech Telecom's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Comtech Telecom Short Properties

Comtech Telecom's future price predictability will typically decrease when Comtech Telecom's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Comtech Telecom often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Comtech Telecom's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Comtech Telecom's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.39%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.40
Short Percent Of Float2.87%
Float Shares24.85M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day96.65k
Shares Short Prior Month669.86k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month124.59k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.49%
Continue to Comtech Telecom Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.

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When running Comtech Telecom price analysis, check to measure Comtech Telecom's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Comtech Telecom is operating at the current time. Most of Comtech Telecom's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Comtech Telecom's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Comtech Telecom's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Comtech Telecom to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Comtech Telecom's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comtech Telecom. If investors know Comtech will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comtech Telecom listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
5.87
Market Capitalization
322.7 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.13) 
Return On Assets
(0.0207) 
Return On Equity
(0.06) 
The market value of Comtech Telecom is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comtech that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comtech Telecom's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comtech Telecom's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comtech Telecom's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comtech Telecom's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comtech Telecom's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Comtech Telecom value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comtech Telecom's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.