Coupa Stock Future Price Prediction

COUP
 Stock
  

USD 63.24  1.78  2.90%   

Coupa Software stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Coupa Software shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Coupa Software's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Coupa Software and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Coupa Software's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Coupa Software, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Coupa Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Coupa Software based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Coupa stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Coupa Software over a specific investment horizon.
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.68
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.74
Wall Street Target Price
71.82
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.09
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Using Coupa Software hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Coupa Software from the perspective of Coupa Software response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Coupa Software using Coupa Software's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Coupa using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Coupa Software's stock price.
Coupa Software Quick Ratio is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Coupa Software reported last year Quick Ratio of 1.69. As of 1st of December 2022, Net Current Assets as percentage of Total Assets is likely to grow to 14.40, while Operating Margin is likely to drop (36.31) .

Coupa Software Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Coupa Software's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Coupa. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Coupa Software stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Coupa Software may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Coupa Software and may potentially protect profits, hedge Coupa Software with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
73.52
Short Percent
0.11
Short Ratio
3.33
Shares Short Prior Month
6.9 M
50 Day MA
54.5
Shares Short
7.3 M

Coupa Software Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Coupa Software's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Coupa. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Coupa can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Coupa Software. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Coupa Software's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Coupa Software.

Coupa Software Implied Volatility

    
  134.4  
Coupa Software's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Coupa Software stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Coupa Software's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Coupa Software stock will not fluctuate a lot when Coupa Software's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Coupa Software. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Coupa Software to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Coupa because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Coupa Software after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 63.45  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Coupa contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Coupa Software will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 8.4% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Coupa Software trading at USD63.24, that is roughly USD5.31. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Coupa Software's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Coupa Software options at the current volatility level of 134.4%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Coupa Software's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Coupa Software in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
56.9298.13104.82
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
63.9270.6177.30
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
130.00215.12330.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-2.07-1.94-1.84
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Coupa Software. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Coupa Software's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Coupa Software's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Coupa Software.

Coupa Software After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Coupa Software at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Coupa Software or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Coupa Software, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Coupa Software Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Coupa Software's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Coupa Software's historical news coverage. Coupa Software's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 56.76 and 70.14, respectively. We have considered Coupa Software's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 63.24
63.45
After-hype Price
70.14
Upside
Coupa Software is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Coupa Software is based on 3 months time horizon.

Coupa Software Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Coupa Software is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Coupa Software backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Coupa Software, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.39  6.69  0.22    3.56  10 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
63.2463.450.33 
1,195  

Coupa Software Hype Timeline

Coupa Software is currently traded for 63.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.22 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -3.56. Coupa is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 63.45 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is forecasted to be 0.33% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Coupa Software is about 73.22% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 59.68. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 725.29 M. Net Loss for the year was (369.11 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 412.05 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days.
Continue to Coupa Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Coupa Software Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Coupa Software's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Coupa Software's future price movements. Getting to know how Coupa Software rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Coupa Software may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Coupa Software Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Coupa price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Coupa using various technical indicators. When you analyze Coupa charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Coupa Software Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Coupa Software stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Coupa Software, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Coupa Software based on analysis of Coupa Software hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Coupa Software's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Coupa Software's related companies.
 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
PPandE Turnover22.9524.6529.99
Long Term Debt to Equity0.861.811.43

Story Coverage note for Coupa Software

The number of cover stories for Coupa Software depends on current market conditions and Coupa Software's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Coupa Software is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Coupa Software's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Coupa Software Short Properties

Coupa Software's future price predictability will typically decrease when Coupa Software's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Coupa Software often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Coupa Software's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Coupa Software's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding73816000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments729491000.00
Continue to Coupa Software Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.

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Is Coupa Software's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Coupa Software. If investors know Coupa will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Coupa Software listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
4.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Return On Assets
(0.05) 
Return On Equity
(0.51) 
The market value of Coupa Software is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Coupa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Coupa Software's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Coupa Software's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Coupa Software's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Coupa Software's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Coupa Software's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Coupa Software value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Coupa Software's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.