California Resources Corp Stock Price Prediction
| CRC Stock | USD 54.75 1.01 1.81% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
62
Oversold | Overbought |
California Resources Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of California Resources shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of California Resources' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of California Resources and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from California Resources' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with California Resources Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting California Resources' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.36 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.1 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.01 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.58 | Wall Street Target Price 62.83 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of California Resources based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The California stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on California Resources over a specific investment horizon. Using California Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of California Resources Corp from the perspective of California Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards California Resources using California Resources' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards California using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of California Resources' stock price.
California Resources Implied Volatility | 34.13 |
California Resources' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of California Resources Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if California Resources' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that California Resources stock will not fluctuate a lot when California Resources' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in California Resources. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in California Resources to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying California because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
California Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 55.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current California contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that California Resources Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.13% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With California Resources trading at USD 54.75, that is roughly USD 1.17 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating California Resources' daily price movement you should consider acquiring California Resources Corp options at the current volatility level of 34.13%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
California |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of California Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
California Resources After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of California Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in California Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of California Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
California Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting California Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on California Resources' historical news coverage. California Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.95 and 58.65, respectively. We have considered California Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
California Resources is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of California Resources Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
California Resources Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as California Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading California Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with California Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 2.85 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 11 Events / Month | 10 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
54.75 | 55.80 | 0.07 |
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California Resources Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April California Resources Corp is traded for 54.75. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. California is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 55.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on California Resources is about 849.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 54.81. The company reported the last year's revenue of 2.81 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 564 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.94 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out California Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.California Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to California Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict California Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how California Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how California Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
California Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine California price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for California using various technical indicators. When you analyze California charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About California Resources Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of California Resources stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as California Resources Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of California Resources based on analysis of California Resources hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to California Resources's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to California Resources's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.003997 | 0.018 | 0.0213 | 0.0202 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.37 | 1.01 | 1.35 | 1.44 |
Story Coverage note for California Resources
The number of cover stories for California Resources depends on current market conditions and California Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that California Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about California Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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California Resources Short Properties
California Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when California Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of California Resources Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential California Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. California Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 72.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 496 M |
Check out California Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Stock Screener module to find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook..
Complementary Tools for California Stock analysis
When running California Resources' price analysis, check to measure California Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy California Resources is operating at the current time. Most of California Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of California Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move California Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of California Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is California Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of California Resources. If investors know California will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about California Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.36 | Dividend Share 1.158 | Earnings Share 7.78 | Revenue Per Share 39.756 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.28) |
The market value of California Resources Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of California that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of California Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is California Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because California Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect California Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between California Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if California Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, California Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.