Carvana Co Stock Price Prediction
CVNA Stock | USD 71.44 0.08 0.11% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
56
Oversold | Overbought |
Carvana stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Carvana shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Carvana's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Carvana and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Carvana's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Carvana Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Carvana's stock price prediction:EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.86) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.08) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.43) | Wall Street Target Price 62.56 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.89) |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Carvana based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Carvana stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Carvana over a specific investment horizon. Using Carvana hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carvana Co from the perspective of Carvana response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carvana using Carvana's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carvana using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carvana's stock price.
Carvana Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Carvana's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Carvana. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Carvana stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Carvana may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Carvana and may potentially protect profits, hedge Carvana with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 49.8016 | Short Percent 0.3169 | Short Ratio 5.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 33.5 M | 50 Day MA 74.9062 |
Carvana Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Carvana's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Carvana. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Carvana can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Carvana Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Carvana's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Carvana.
Carvana Implied Volatility | 108.56 |
Carvana's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carvana Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carvana's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carvana stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carvana's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Carvana. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Carvana to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Carvana because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Carvana after-hype prediction price | USD 69.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Carvana contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Carvana Co will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.78% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Carvana trading at USD 71.44, that is roughly USD 4.85 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Carvana's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Carvana Co options at the current volatility level of 108.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Carvana |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carvana's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carvana After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carvana at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carvana or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carvana, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Carvana Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carvana's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carvana's historical news coverage. Carvana's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 63.66 and 76.00, respectively. We have considered Carvana's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carvana is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carvana is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carvana Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carvana is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carvana backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carvana, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.03 | 6.17 | 1.61 | 1.23 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
71.44 | 69.83 | 2.25 |
|
Carvana Hype Timeline
Carvana is currently traded for 71.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.61, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 1.23. Carvana is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 69.83. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.25%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 1.03%. The volatility of related hype on Carvana is about 518.27%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 72.67. About 91.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 4.18. Carvana had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Carvana Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Carvana Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carvana's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carvana's future price movements. Getting to know how Carvana's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carvana may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
SFT | Shift Technologies | (0.10) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 7.34 | (23.53) | 104.49 | |
CZOO | Cazoo Group | (0.35) | 6 per month | 10.49 | 0.09 | 40.29 | (23.75) | 130.53 | |
KMX | CarMax Inc | (1.40) | 5 per month | 2.84 | (0.03) | 3.21 | (3.53) | 13.28 | |
UCAR | U Power Limited | 10.08 | 7 per month | 10.33 | 0.12 | 14.26 | (13.45) | 9,494 | |
SDA | SunCar Technology Group | 0.36 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 8.43 | (6.25) | 26.87 | |
JZXN | Jiuzi Holdings | 0.09 | 6 per month | 15.48 | 0.02 | 15.22 | (15.22) | 91.18 | |
VRM | Vroom Inc | 6.28 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 20.27 | (14.47) | 68.01 | |
AN | AutoNation | (2.91) | 11 per month | 1.67 | 0.04 | 3.41 | (2.94) | 8.21 | |
LAD | Lithia Motors | (1.12) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.38 | (3.73) | 7.97 | |
ABG | Asbury Automotive Group | 0.97 | 11 per month | 1.86 | 0.01 | 3.18 | (3.41) | 8.82 |
Carvana Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carvana price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carvana using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carvana charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Carvana Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Carvana stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Carvana Co, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Carvana based on analysis of Carvana hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Carvana's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Carvana's related companies. 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 1.18 | 1.06 | 1.12 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.5 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
Story Coverage note for Carvana
The number of cover stories for Carvana depends on current market conditions and Carvana's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carvana is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carvana's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Carvana Short Properties
Carvana's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carvana's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carvana Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carvana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carvana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 200.6 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 896 M |
Check out Carvana Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Complementary Tools for Carvana Stock analysis
When running Carvana's price analysis, check to measure Carvana's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carvana is operating at the current time. Most of Carvana's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carvana's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carvana's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carvana to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
Sign In To Macroaxis Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules | |
Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal | |
Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
Pattern Recognition Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges | |
Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios |
Is Carvana's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carvana. If investors know Carvana will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carvana listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (4.18) | Revenue Per Share 98.525 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) | Return On Assets (0.01) | Return On Equity (12.69) |
The market value of Carvana is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carvana that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carvana's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carvana's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carvana's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carvana's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carvana's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carvana is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carvana's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.