China Stock Future Price Prediction

CYD -  USA Stock  

USD 13.67  0.22  1.58%

China Yuchai Interna stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of China Yuchai shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of China Yuchai's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of China Yuchai and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from China Yuchai's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with China Yuchai International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to China Yuchai Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

China Price Prediction 

 
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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of China Yuchai based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The China stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on China Yuchai over a specific investment horizon. Using China Yuchai hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Yuchai International from the perspective of China Yuchai response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards China Yuchai using China Yuchai's options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards China using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of China Yuchai's stock price.
China Yuchai Dividend Yield is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Dividend Yield was at 0.06. The current year Dividends per Basic Common Share is expected to grow to 0.88, whereas Book Value per Share is forecasted to decline to 242.94.

China Yuchai Implied Volatility

    
  47.71  
China Yuchai's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of China Yuchai International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if China Yuchai's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that China Yuchai stock will not fluctuate a lot when China Yuchai's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in China Yuchai. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in China Yuchai to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying China because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

China Yuchai after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 13.97  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of China Yuchai's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of China Yuchai in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
12.5016.7919.50
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
9.7312.4415.15
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
23.0023.0023.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.281.281.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Yuchai. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Yuchai's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Yuchai's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in China Yuchai Interna.

China Yuchai After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of China Yuchai at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Yuchai or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of China Yuchai, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

China Yuchai Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting China Yuchai's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Yuchai's historical news coverage. China Yuchai's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 11.26 and 16.68, respectively. We have considered China Yuchai's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 13.67
13.97
After-hype Price
16.68
Upside
China Yuchai is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Yuchai Interna is based on 3 months time horizon.

China Yuchai Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as China Yuchai is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Yuchai backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Yuchai, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.08  2.72  0.06   0.00  5 Events / Month7 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.6713.970.58 
388.57  

China Yuchai Hype Timeline

On the 26th of January China Yuchai Interna is traded for 13.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. China is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 13.97 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.58% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. The volatility of related hype on China Yuchai is about 9.223372036854776E16% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 13.67. The company reported the last year's revenue of 23.25 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 496.88 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.19 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipatedpress releasewill be in about 5 days.
Continue to China Yuchai Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

China Yuchai Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to China Yuchai's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Yuchai's future price movements. Getting to know how China Yuchai rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Yuchai may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
B
Barnes Group 0.34 10 per month 1.66  0.10  2.82 (2.50)  11.59 
HURC
Hurco Cos(0.50) 2 per month 0.00 (0.0188)  3.23 (3.29)  7.87 
CFX
Colfax Corp(0.14) 8 per month 0.00 (0.14)  2.14 (2.43)  7.64 
CIR
Circor International 0.88 4 per month 0.00 (0.06)  5.03 (5.06)  20.49 
CVV
CVD Equipment Corp(0.13) 6 per month 0.00 (0.0122)  7.73 (3.86)  20.54 
CYD
China Yuchai International 0.70 5 per month 2.06  0.06  6.21 (2.77)  16.23 
DCI
Donaldson(0.15) 9 per month 0.00 (0.0348)  2.90 (2.89)  6.82 
CR
Crane Company(0.12) 8 per month 1.64  0.09  3.10 (2.52)  13.13 
CW
Curtiss-Wright Corp 0.34 9 per month 1.47  0.06  2.68 (2.37)  8.32 
GE
General Electric(1.22) 8 per month 0.00 (0.06)  3.25 (3.46)  7.65 

China Yuchai Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About China Yuchai Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of China Yuchai stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as China Yuchai International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of China Yuchai based on analysis of China Yuchai hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to China Yuchai's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to China Yuchai's related companies.
 2019 2021 (projected)
Book Value per Share214.58253.73
Asset Turnover0.790.74

Story Coverage note for China Yuchai

The number of cover stories for China Yuchai depends on current market conditions and China Yuchai's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Yuchai is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Yuchai's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Latest Perspective on China Yuchai

China Yuchai Short Properties

China Yuchai's future price predictability will typically decrease when China Yuchai's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Yuchai International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Yuchai's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Yuchai's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.12%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate11.10
Short Percent Of Float0.32%
Float Shares12.04M
Shares Short Prior Month52.01k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day23.72k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month39.78k
Date Short Interest31st of December 2021
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield78.27%
Continue to China Yuchai Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the China Yuchai Interna information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other China Yuchai's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.

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When running China Yuchai Interna price analysis, check to measure China Yuchai's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy China Yuchai is operating at the current time. Most of China Yuchai's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of China Yuchai's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move China Yuchai's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of China Yuchai to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is China Yuchai's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of China Yuchai. If investors know China will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about China Yuchai listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of China Yuchai Interna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of China that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of China Yuchai's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is China Yuchai's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because China Yuchai's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect China Yuchai's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between China Yuchai's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine China Yuchai value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, China Yuchai's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.