Hf Sinclair Corp Stock Price Prediction
| DINO Stock | USD 57.17 0.32 0.56% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
62
Oversold | Overbought |
HF Sinclair Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of HF Sinclair shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of HF Sinclair's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of HF Sinclair and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from HF Sinclair's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with HF Sinclair Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting HF Sinclair's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.24 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.7 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.35 | Wall Street Target Price 65.14 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of HF Sinclair based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The DINO stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on HF Sinclair over a specific investment horizon. Using HF Sinclair hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HF Sinclair Corp from the perspective of HF Sinclair response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards HF Sinclair using HF Sinclair's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards DINO using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of HF Sinclair's stock price.
HF Sinclair Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in HF Sinclair's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards DINO. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of HF Sinclair stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long HF Sinclair may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about HF Sinclair and may potentially protect profits, hedge HF Sinclair with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 55.7045 | Short Percent 0.0587 | Short Ratio 3.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.9 M | 50 Day MA 59.0404 |
HF Sinclair Corp Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to HF Sinclair's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in DINO. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding DINO can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around HF Sinclair Corp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of HF Sinclair's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about HF Sinclair.
HF Sinclair Implied Volatility | 33.22 |
HF Sinclair's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of HF Sinclair Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if HF Sinclair's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that HF Sinclair stock will not fluctuate a lot when HF Sinclair's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in HF Sinclair. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in HF Sinclair to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying DINO because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
HF Sinclair after-hype prediction price | USD 57.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current DINO contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that HF Sinclair Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.08% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With HF Sinclair trading at USD 57.17, that is roughly USD 1.19 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating HF Sinclair's daily price movement you should consider acquiring HF Sinclair Corp options at the current volatility level of 33.22%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
DINO |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of HF Sinclair's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
HF Sinclair After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of HF Sinclair at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HF Sinclair or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HF Sinclair, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
HF Sinclair Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting HF Sinclair's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HF Sinclair's historical news coverage. HF Sinclair's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.22 and 58.88, respectively. We have considered HF Sinclair's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
HF Sinclair is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HF Sinclair Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
HF Sinclair Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as HF Sinclair is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HF Sinclair backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HF Sinclair, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.84 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 11 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
57.17 | 57.05 | 0.21 |
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HF Sinclair Hype Timeline
HF Sinclair Corp is currently traded for 57.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. DINO is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 57.05. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on HF Sinclair is about 271.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.07. About 76.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.16. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. HF Sinclair Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.29. The entity last dividend was issued on the 23rd of February 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of September 2011. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out HF Sinclair Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.HF Sinclair Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to HF Sinclair's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HF Sinclair's future price movements. Getting to know how HF Sinclair's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HF Sinclair may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DKL | Delek Logistics Partners | (0.03) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.93 | (2.39) | 15.58 | |
| CAPL | Crossamerica Partners LP | (0.27) | 10 per month | 1.07 | (0.06) | 1.47 | (1.81) | 4.79 | |
| SUN | Sunoco LP | (1.73) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.90 | (2.94) | 6.98 |
HF Sinclair Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine DINO price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for DINO using various technical indicators. When you analyze DINO charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About HF Sinclair Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of HF Sinclair stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as HF Sinclair Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of HF Sinclair based on analysis of HF Sinclair hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to HF Sinclair's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to HF Sinclair's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0108 | 0.0243 | 0.0323 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.33 |
Story Coverage note for HF Sinclair
The number of cover stories for HF Sinclair depends on current market conditions and HF Sinclair's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HF Sinclair is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HF Sinclair's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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HF Sinclair Short Properties
HF Sinclair's future price predictability will typically decrease when HF Sinclair's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of HF Sinclair Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential HF Sinclair's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HF Sinclair's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 190 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.4 B |
Check out HF Sinclair Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Complementary Tools for DINO Stock analysis
When running HF Sinclair's price analysis, check to measure HF Sinclair's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HF Sinclair is operating at the current time. Most of HF Sinclair's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HF Sinclair's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HF Sinclair's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HF Sinclair to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is HF Sinclair's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HF Sinclair. If investors know DINO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HF Sinclair listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Dividend Share 1.8 | Earnings Share 8.29 | Revenue Per Share 168.203 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of HF Sinclair Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of DINO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HF Sinclair's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HF Sinclair's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HF Sinclair's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HF Sinclair's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HF Sinclair's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HF Sinclair is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HF Sinclair's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.