Dow Inc Stock Price Prediction
| DOW Stock | USD 57.01 0.27 0.48% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
57
Oversold | Overbought |
Dow Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Dow shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Dow's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Dow and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Dow's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Dow Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Dow's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.52 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.02 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.32 | Wall Street Target Price 59.5 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Dow based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Dow stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Dow over a specific investment horizon. Using Dow hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Dow Inc from the perspective of Dow response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Dow using Dow's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Dow using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Dow's stock price.
Dow Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Dow's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Dow. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Dow stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Dow may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Dow and may potentially protect profits, hedge Dow with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 53.7436 | Short Percent 0.0197 | Short Ratio 2.28 | Shares Short Prior Month 12.6 M | 50 Day MA 57.0632 |
Dow Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Dow's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dow. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dow can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dow Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Dow's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Dow.
Dow Implied Volatility | 53.23 |
Dow's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Dow Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Dow's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Dow stock will not fluctuate a lot when Dow's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Dow. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Dow to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Dow because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Dow after-hype prediction price | USD 56.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Dow contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Dow Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.33% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Dow trading at USD 57.01, that is roughly USD 1.9 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Dow's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Dow Inc options at the current volatility level of 53.23%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Dow |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Dow's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Dow After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Dow at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Dow or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Dow, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Dow Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Dow's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Dow's historical news coverage. Dow's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 55.67 and 57.81, respectively. We have considered Dow's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Dow is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Dow Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
Dow Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Dow is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Dow backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Dow, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.07 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
57.01 | 56.74 | 0.00 |
|
Dow Hype Timeline
On the 24th of April Dow Inc is traded for 57.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Dow is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Dow is about 324.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 57.04. About 67.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Dow was currently reported as 26.5. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.78. Dow Inc last dividend was issued on the 30th of May 2024. The entity had 3:1 split on the 19th of June 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Dow Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Dow Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Dow's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Dow's future price movements. Getting to know how Dow's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Dow may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GPRE | Green Plains Renewable | (0.23) | 10 per month | 2.22 | 0.01 | 4.57 | (3.53) | 18.64 | |
| BASFY | BASF SE ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.02 | 0.11 | 2.96 | (1.91) | 6.48 | |
| MEOH | Methanex | 1.22 | 12 per month | 2.54 | 0.03 | 3.65 | (3.08) | 14.54 |
Dow Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Dow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Dow using various technical indicators. When you analyze Dow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Dow Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Dow stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Dow Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Dow based on analysis of Dow hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Dow's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Dow's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0492 | 0.0552 | 0.051 | 0.0702 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.77 | 0.64 | 0.87 | 0.66 |
Story Coverage note for Dow
The number of cover stories for Dow depends on current market conditions and Dow's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Dow is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Dow's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Dow Short Properties
Dow's future price predictability will typically decrease when Dow's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Dow Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Dow's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Dow's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 709 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3 B |
Check out Dow Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Complementary Tools for Dow Stock analysis
When running Dow's price analysis, check to measure Dow's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dow is operating at the current time. Most of Dow's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dow's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dow's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dow to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Fundamental Analysis View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements | |
| Global Markets Map Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Equity Search Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets |
Is Dow's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dow. If investors know Dow will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dow listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | Dividend Share 2.8 | Earnings Share 0.82 | Revenue Per Share 63.231 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of Dow Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dow that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dow's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dow's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dow's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dow's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dow's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dow is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dow's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.