Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock Price Prediction

EARN Stock  USD 6.96  0.08  1.14%   
As of today, The RSI of Ellington Residential's share price is at 53 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ellington Residential, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

53

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Ellington Residential's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ellington Residential Mortgage, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ellington Residential's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.185
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.27
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.06
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.11
Wall Street Target Price
9.83
Using Ellington Residential hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ellington Residential Mortgage from the perspective of Ellington Residential response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ellington Residential using Ellington Residential's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ellington using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ellington Residential's stock price.

Ellington Residential Implied Volatility

    
  0.0  
Ellington Residential's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ellington Residential Mortgage stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ellington Residential's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ellington Residential stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ellington Residential's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ellington Residential to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ellington because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Ellington Residential after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 6.96  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Ellington Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ellington Residential's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.818.249.67
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
5.797.228.65
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.319.1310.13
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.240.270.29
Details

Ellington Residential After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ellington Residential at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ellington Residential or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ellington Residential, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ellington Residential Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ellington Residential's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ellington Residential's historical news coverage. Ellington Residential's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.53 and 8.39, respectively. We have considered Ellington Residential's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.96
6.96
After-hype Price
8.39
Upside
Ellington Residential is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ellington Residential is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ellington Residential Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ellington Residential is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ellington Residential backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ellington Residential, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11 
1.42
 0.00  
  0.01 
9 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.96
6.96
0.00 
14,200  
Notes

Ellington Residential Hype Timeline

Ellington Residential is currently traded for 6.96. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Ellington is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on Ellington Residential is about 1374.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.95. About 18.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.96. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ellington Residential last dividend was issued on the 28th of June 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Ellington Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Ellington Residential Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ellington Residential's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ellington Residential's future price movements. Getting to know how Ellington Residential's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ellington Residential may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DXDynex Capital(0.11)8 per month 0.00 (0.02) 1.83 (1.95) 8.31 
ORCOrchid Island Capital 0.08 9 per month 1.55  0.02  2.26 (2.55) 7.00 
ARRARMOUR Residential REIT(0.46)13 per month 1.71  0.05  2.54 (2.59) 9.57 
BRMKBroadmark Realty Capital(0.15)6 per month 0.00 (0.02) 3.02 (4.08) 8.68 
RCReady Capital Corp(0.16)9 per month 0.00 (0.01) 2.49 (3.29) 7.97 
EFCEllington Financial LLC(0.03)9 per month 1.16  0.12  1.71 (1.75) 5.68 
ARIApollo Commercial Real(0.05)9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 2.24 (2.28) 12.40 
KREFKKR Real Estate 0.05 4 per month 0.00 (0.06) 2.19 (2.25) 6.94 
TWOTwo Harbors Investments(0.1)11 per month 1.36  0.06  2.03 (1.94) 8.08 

Ellington Residential Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ellington price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ellington using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ellington charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Ellington Residential Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Ellington Residential stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ellington Residential Mortgage, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ellington Residential based on analysis of Ellington Residential hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ellington Residential's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ellington Residential's related companies.
 2020 2024 (projected)
PTB Ratio0.970.64
Dividend Yield0.08590.1

Story Coverage note for Ellington Residential

The number of cover stories for Ellington Residential depends on current market conditions and Ellington Residential's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ellington Residential is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ellington Residential's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Ellington Residential Short Properties

Ellington Residential's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ellington Residential's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ellington Residential Mortgage often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ellington Residential's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ellington Residential's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments38.5 M

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ellington Stock

When determining whether Ellington Residential offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ellington Residential's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ellington Residential Mortgage Stock:
Check out Ellington Residential Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ellington Residential. If investors know Ellington will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ellington Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.185
Dividend Share
0.96
Earnings Share
0.34
Revenue Per Share
1.532
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.83)
The market value of Ellington Residential is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ellington that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ellington Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ellington Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ellington Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ellington Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ellington Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ellington Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ellington Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.