Facebook Stock Price Prediction

FB -  USA Stock  

USD 329.66  6.85  2.04%

Facebook stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Facebook shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Facebook stock future price could yield a significant profit.
We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Facebook, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Please check Facebook Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Facebook based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Facebook stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Facebook over a specific investment horizon. Using Facebook hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Facebook from the perspective of Facebook response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Facebook Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 0.002783. The current year Calculated Tax Rate is expected to grow to 12.48, whereas Interest Coverage is forecasted to decline to 54.75.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Facebook. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Facebook to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Facebook because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Facebook after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 331.08  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Facebook's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Facebook in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
313.21314.97362.63
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
328.37330.13331.89
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
270.00365.12460.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (15)
LowProjected EPSHigh
12.0513.1814.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Facebook. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Facebook's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Facebook's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Facebook.

Facebook After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Facebook at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Facebook or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Facebook, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Facebook Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Facebook's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Facebook's historical news coverage. Facebook's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 329.32 and 332.84, respectively. We have considered Facebook's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
329.66
20th of June 2021
329.32
Downside
331.08
After-hype Price
332.84
Upside
Facebook is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Facebook is based on 3 months time horizon.

Facebook Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Facebook is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Facebook backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Facebook, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.20  1.76  1.42   0.24  7 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
329.66331.080.43 
24.79  

Facebook Hype Timeline

As of June 20, 2021 Facebook is listed for 329.66. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.42 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.24. Facebook is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 331.08 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 24.79%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.43% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Facebook is about 149.15% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 329.9. The company generated the yearly revenue of 94.4 B. Reported Net Income was 33.74 B with gross profit of 69.27 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecastedpress releasewill be in about 7 days.
Please check Facebook Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Facebook Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Facebook's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Facebook's future price movements. Getting to know how Facebook rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Facebook may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Facebook 7.10 7 per month 1.20  0.12  3.43 (2.04)  11.41 
Iqiyi Inc ADR(0.38) 6 per month 0.00 (0.16)  5.35 (7.86)  24.14 
Spark Networks(0.15) 11 per month 3.39 (0.0007)  7.96 (5.99)  25.96 
Phoenix New Media 0.01 2 per month 0.00 (0.0144)  4.85 (5.81)  41.61 
Fiverr International 6.09 8 per month 0.00 (0.0093)  6.08 (5.61)  15.63 
Acuityads Holdings(0.30) 5 per month 0.00 (0.16)  13.81 (11.37)  22.64 
Youdao Inc ADR(1.29) 4 per month 0.00 (0.09)  8.64 (9.22)  24.17 
Douyu International Holdings(0.12) 7 per month 0.00 (0.18)  4.95 (6.31)  17.71 
Chindata Group Holdings 0.18 4 per month 0.00 (0.07)  5.90 (7.44)  14.94 
Everquote Inc Cl 0.66 6 per month 0.00 (0.08)  4.80 (4.81)  11.87 

Facebook Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Facebook price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Facebook using various technical indicators. When you analyze Facebook charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Facebook Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Facebook stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Facebook, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Facebook based on analysis of Facebook hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Facebook's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Facebook's related companies.
 2020 2021 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.0027830.002856
Interest Coverage68.2154.75

Story Coverage note for Facebook

The number of cover stories for Facebook depends on current market conditions and Facebook's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Facebook is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Facebook's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Latest Perspective on Facebook

Facebook Short Properties

Facebook's future price predictability will typically decrease when Facebook's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Facebook often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Facebook's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Facebook's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.08%
Short Percent Of Float1.28%
Float Shares2.38B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day14.45M
Shares Short Prior Month27.93M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month18.86M
Date Short Interest15th of April 2021
Please check Facebook Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Facebook information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Facebook's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Facebook Stock analysis

When running Facebook price analysis, check to measure Facebook's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Facebook is operating at the current time. Most of Facebook's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Facebook's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Facebook's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Facebook to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Facebook is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Facebook that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Facebook's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Facebook's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Facebook's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Facebook underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Facebook's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Facebook value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Facebook's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.