Comfort Systems Usa Stock Price Prediction
FIX Stock | USD 317.71 0.25 0.08% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
65
Oversold | Overbought |
Comfort Systems USA stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Comfort Systems shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Comfort Systems' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Comfort Systems and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Comfort Systems' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Comfort Systems USA, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Comfort Systems' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.657 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.75 | EPS Estimate Current Year 10.98 | EPS Estimate Next Year 12.61 | Wall Street Target Price 312.75 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Comfort Systems based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Comfort stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Comfort Systems over a specific investment horizon. Using Comfort Systems hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Comfort Systems USA from the perspective of Comfort Systems response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Comfort Systems using Comfort Systems' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Comfort using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Comfort Systems' stock price.
Comfort Systems Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Comfort Systems' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Comfort. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Comfort Systems stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Comfort Systems may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Comfort Systems and may potentially protect profits, hedge Comfort Systems with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 201.1218 | Short Percent 0.0431 | Short Ratio 2.06 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 265.2214 |
Comfort Systems USA Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Comfort Systems' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Comfort. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Comfort can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Comfort Systems USA. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Comfort Systems' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Comfort Systems.
Comfort Systems Implied Volatility | 35.33 |
Comfort Systems' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Comfort Systems USA stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Comfort Systems' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Comfort Systems stock will not fluctuate a lot when Comfort Systems' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Comfort Systems. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Comfort Systems to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Comfort because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Comfort Systems after-hype prediction price | USD 317.71 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Comfort contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Comfort Systems USA will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.21% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Comfort Systems trading at USD 317.71, that is roughly USD 7.02 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Comfort Systems' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Comfort Systems USA options at the current volatility level of 35.33%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Comfort |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Comfort Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Comfort Systems After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Comfort Systems at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Comfort Systems or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Comfort Systems, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
Expected price to next headline |
Comfort Systems Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Comfort Systems' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Comfort Systems' historical news coverage. Comfort Systems' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 315.25 and 320.17, respectively. We have considered Comfort Systems' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Comfort Systems is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Comfort Systems USA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Comfort Systems Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Comfort Systems is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Comfort Systems backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Comfort Systems, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.77 | 2.46 | 1.90 | 0.41 | 12 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
317.71 | 317.71 | 0.00 |
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Comfort Systems Hype Timeline
On the 29th of March Comfort Systems USA is traded for 317.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.9, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.41. Comfort is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 99.6%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.77%. %. The volatility of related hype on Comfort Systems is about 459.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 317.30. About 100.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.06. Comfort Systems USA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 9.0. The entity last dividend was issued on the 7th of March 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the December 24, 2010. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Comfort Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Comfort Systems Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Comfort Systems' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Comfort Systems' future price movements. Getting to know how Comfort Systems rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Comfort Systems may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
DY | Dycom Industries | 0.47 | 7 per month | 1.31 | 0.13 | 2.67 | (2.26) | 7.81 | |
VATE | Innovate Corp | 0.09 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 9.40 | (8.99) | 36.88 | |
EXPO | Exponent | (0.08) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.73 | (3.52) | 16.30 | |
WLDN | Willdan Group | 0.92 | 9 per month | 2.10 | 0.09 | 5.13 | (4.00) | 27.06 | |
ACA | Arcosa Inc | 1.67 | 11 per month | 1.65 | (0.05) | 2.32 | (2.40) | 8.34 | |
BLD | Topbuild Corp | (6.99) | 10 per month | 1.90 | 0.06 | 3.08 | (3.70) | 11.23 | |
CSCO | Cisco Systems | 0.17 | 9 per month | 1.06 | (0.14) | 1.29 | (1.34) | 5.93 |
Comfort Systems Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Comfort price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Comfort using various technical indicators. When you analyze Comfort charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
About Comfort Systems Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Comfort Systems stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Comfort Systems USA, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Comfort Systems based on analysis of Comfort Systems hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Comfort Systems's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Comfort Systems's related companies. 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.004842 | 0.004855 | 0.004126 | 0.003919 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.17 | 1.0 | 1.41 | 1.48 |
Story Coverage note for Comfort Systems
The number of cover stories for Comfort Systems depends on current market conditions and Comfort Systems' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Comfort Systems is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Comfort Systems' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Comfort Systems Short Properties
Comfort Systems' future price predictability will typically decrease when Comfort Systems' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Comfort Systems USA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Comfort Systems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Comfort Systems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.9 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 205.2 M |
Check out Comfort Systems Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
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When running Comfort Systems' price analysis, check to measure Comfort Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Comfort Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Comfort Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Comfort Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Comfort Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Comfort Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Comfort Systems' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Comfort Systems. If investors know Comfort will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Comfort Systems listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.657 | Dividend Share 0.85 | Earnings Share 9 | Revenue Per Share 145.432 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.215 |
The market value of Comfort Systems USA is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Comfort that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Comfort Systems' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Comfort Systems' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Comfort Systems' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Comfort Systems' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Comfort Systems' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Comfort Systems is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Comfort Systems' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.