Fly Leasing Stock Future Price Prediction

FLY -  USA Stock  

USD 17.03  0.02  0.12%

Fly Leasing stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Fly Leasing shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Fly Leasing's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Fly Leasing and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Fly Leasing's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Fly Leasing, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Fly Leasing Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

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It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Fly Leasing based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Fly Leasing stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Fly Leasing over a specific investment horizon. Using Fly Leasing hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Fly Leasing from the perspective of Fly Leasing response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Fly Leasing Return on Sales is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Fly Leasing reported Return on Sales of 0.1 in 2020. Sales per Share is likely to rise to 12.74 in 2021, whereas Book Value per Share is likely to drop 25.37 in 2021.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Fly Leasing. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Fly Leasing to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Fly Leasing because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Fly Leasing after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 17.05  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fly Leasing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Fly Leasing in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
16.8917.0017.11
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
16.9517.0517.16
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
17.0017.0217.05
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.250.500.75
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Fly Leasing. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Fly Leasing's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Fly Leasing's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Fly Leasing.

Fly Leasing After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Fly Leasing at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Fly Leasing or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many smart people who confused the symmetrical distributions of stock prices, such as prices of Fly Leasing, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
 Next price density 
      Expected price to next headline 

Fly Leasing Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Fly Leasing's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Fly Leasing's historical news coverage. Fly Leasing's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.94 and 17.16, respectively. We have considered Fly Leasing's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
17.03
1st of August 2021
17.05
After-hype Price
17.16
Upside
Fly Leasing is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Fly Leasing is based on 3 months time horizon.

Fly Leasing Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Fly Leasing is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Fly Leasing backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Fly Leasing, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Daily Expected returnPeriod VolatilityHype elasticityRelated hype elasticityAverage news densityRelated news densityNext Expected Hype
 0.01  0.11  0.02   0.01  10 Events / Month8 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
17.0317.050.12 
5.76  

Fly Leasing Hype Timeline

On the 1st of August Fly Leasing is traded for 17.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Fly Leasing is expected to increase in value after the next headline with price projected to jump to 17.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 5.76%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.12% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Fly Leasing is about 10.65% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 17.04. The company reported the last year's revenue of 290.97 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (108.89 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 194.12 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expectedpress releasewill be in about 10 days.
Please check Fly Leasing Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Fly Leasing Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Fly Leasing's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Fly Leasing's future price movements. Getting to know how Fly Leasing rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Fly Leasing may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
Air Lease Corp 1.19 4 per month 0.00 (0.1)  3.66 (3.30)  12.47 
AeroCentury Corp(0.10) 9 per month 4.70  0.06  11.58 (7.62)  27.12 
Cai International(0.67) 12 per month 1.50  0.07  3.38 (3.43)  47.44 
Avis Budget Group 4.95 13 per month 0.00 (0.0274)  5.34 (5.98)  16.13 
Flexshopper 0.19 10 per month 0.00 (0.0433)  6.55 (4.69)  16.49 
Fly Leasing 1.91 10 per month 0.06 (0.41)  0.24 (0.18)  0.53 
TD Holdings 0.03 11 per month 0.00 (0.12)  7.89 (9.91)  36.05 
Fortress Transn Infras 0.38 11 per month 0.00 (0.0465)  3.94 (3.76)  9.64 
Herc Holdings 3.64 12 per month 2.42  0.07  4.39 (3.63)  10.86 
GATX Corp(1.19) 5 per month 0.00 (0.07)  2.24 (2.82)  8.07 

Fly Leasing Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Fly Leasing price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Fly Leasing using various technical indicators. When you analyze Fly Leasing charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Fly Leasing Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Fly Leasing stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Fly Leasing, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Fly Leasing based on analysis of Fly Leasing hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Fly Leasing's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Fly Leasing's related companies.
 2019 2020 (projected)
Book Value per Share27.7925.83
Asset Turnover0.150.097

Story Coverage note for Fly Leasing

The number of cover stories for Fly Leasing depends on current market conditions and Fly Leasing's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Fly Leasing is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Fly Leasing's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Fly Leasing Short Properties

Fly Leasing's future price predictability will typically decrease when Fly Leasing's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Fly Leasing often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Fly Leasing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fly Leasing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.05%
Float Shares19.06M
Shares Short Prior Month1.29M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day153.67k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month211.62k
Date Short Interest28th of May 2021
Please check Fly Leasing Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Fly Leasing information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fly Leasing's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

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When running Fly Leasing price analysis, check to measure Fly Leasing's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fly Leasing is operating at the current time. Most of Fly Leasing's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fly Leasing's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fly Leasing's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fly Leasing to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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The market value of Fly Leasing is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fly Leasing that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fly Leasing's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fly Leasing's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fly Leasing's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fly Leasing underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fly Leasing's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Fly Leasing value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fly Leasing's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.