Gatx Corporation Stock Price Prediction
| GATX Stock | USD 125.83 0.29 0.23% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
48
Oversold | Overbought |
GATX stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of GATX shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of GATX's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of GATX and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from GATX's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with GATX Corporation, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting GATX's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.65 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.57 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.96 | Wall Street Target Price 137.5 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of GATX based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The GATX stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on GATX over a specific investment horizon. Using GATX hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of GATX Corporation from the perspective of GATX response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards GATX using GATX's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards GATX using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of GATX's stock price.
GATX Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in GATX's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards GATX. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of GATX stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long GATX may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about GATX and may potentially protect profits, hedge GATX with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 119.6791 | Short Percent 0.055 | Short Ratio 8.55 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 129.6664 |
GATX Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to GATX's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in GATX. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding GATX can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around GATX Corporation. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of GATX's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about GATX.
GATX Implied Volatility | 29.51 |
GATX's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of GATX Corporation stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if GATX's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that GATX stock will not fluctuate a lot when GATX's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in GATX. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in GATX to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying GATX because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
GATX after-hype prediction price | USD 125.83 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current GATX contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that GATX Corporation will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.84% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With GATX trading at USD 125.83, that is roughly USD 2.32 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating GATX's daily price movement you should consider acquiring GATX Corporation options at the current volatility level of 29.51%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
GATX |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GATX's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GATX After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of GATX at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in GATX or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of GATX, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
GATX Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting GATX's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on GATX's historical news coverage. GATX's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 124.55 and 127.11, respectively. We have considered GATX's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
GATX is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of GATX is based on 3 months time horizon.
GATX Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as GATX is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading GATX backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with GATX, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
125.83 | 125.83 | 0.00 |
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GATX Hype Timeline
GATX is currently traded for 125.83. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. GATX is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on GATX is about 431.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 125.83. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of GATX was currently reported as 64.93. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.87. GATX recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.13. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of February 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 2nd of June 1998. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out GATX Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.GATX Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to GATX's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict GATX's future price movements. Getting to know how GATX's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how GATX may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CTOS | Custom Truck One | (0.03) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.88 | (2.96) | 21.66 | |
| HEES | HE Equipment Services | (0.65) | 12 per month | 1.83 | 0.10 | 3.50 | (2.76) | 11.36 | |
| ALTG | Alta Equipment Group | 0.83 | 8 per month | 2.21 | 0.03 | 5.39 | (3.66) | 12.81 | |
| AAN | The Aarons | (0.10) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.82 | (5.52) | 22.32 | |
| MGRC | McGrath RentCorp | (1.70) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.65 | (1.88) | 13.21 | |
| MPU | Mega Matrix Corp | (0.18) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 14.04 | (9.80) | 42.87 | |
| FTAIM | FTAI Aviation Ltd | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.29 | (0.07) | 0.91 | (0.60) | 2.49 | |
| R | Ryder System | (1.27) | 9 per month | 1.78 | 0.02 | 2.06 | (2.20) | 8.60 | |
| PRG | PROG Holdings | 0.43 | 11 per month | 2.82 | 0.04 | 3.71 | (3.72) | 13.89 |
GATX Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine GATX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for GATX using various technical indicators. When you analyze GATX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About GATX Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of GATX stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as GATX Corporation, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of GATX based on analysis of GATX hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to GATX's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to GATX's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0201 | 0.0203 | 0.0188 | 0.0178 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.93 | 2.96 | 3.04 | 3.19 |
Story Coverage note for GATX
The number of cover stories for GATX depends on current market conditions and GATX's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that GATX is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about GATX's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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GATX Short Properties
GATX's future price predictability will typically decrease when GATX's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of GATX Corporation often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential GATX's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GATX's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 450.8 M |
Check out GATX Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Complementary Tools for GATX Stock analysis
When running GATX's price analysis, check to measure GATX's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GATX is operating at the current time. Most of GATX's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GATX's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GATX's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GATX to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is GATX's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of GATX. If investors know GATX will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about GATX listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.05) | Dividend Share 2.23 | Earnings Share 7.13 | Revenue Per Share 40.528 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.121 |
The market value of GATX is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of GATX that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of GATX's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is GATX's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because GATX's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect GATX's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between GATX's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if GATX is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, GATX's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.