Greenbrier Companies Stock Price Prediction

GBX Stock  USD 48.72  1.42  3.00%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Greenbrier Companies' share price is below 30 at this time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Greenbrier Companies, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

27

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Greenbrier Companies' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Greenbrier Companies, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Greenbrier Companies' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.647
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.32
EPS Estimate Next Year
4.4
Wall Street Target Price
55
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.14
Using Greenbrier Companies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Greenbrier Companies from the perspective of Greenbrier Companies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Greenbrier Companies using Greenbrier Companies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Greenbrier using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Greenbrier Companies' stock price.

Greenbrier Companies Short Interest

An investor who is long Greenbrier Companies may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Greenbrier Companies and may potentially protect profits, hedge Greenbrier Companies with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
46.7632
Short Percent
0.0971
Short Ratio
6.02
Shares Short Prior Month
M
50 Day MA
50.283

Greenbrier Companies Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Greenbrier Companies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Greenbrier. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Greenbrier can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Greenbrier Companies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Greenbrier Companies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Greenbrier Companies.

Greenbrier Companies Implied Volatility

    
  29.69  
Greenbrier Companies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Greenbrier Companies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Greenbrier Companies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Greenbrier Companies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Greenbrier Companies' options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Greenbrier Companies to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Greenbrier because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Greenbrier Companies after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 47.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Greenbrier contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Greenbrier Companies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.86% per day over the life of the 2024-08-16 option contract. With Greenbrier Companies trading at USD 48.72, that is roughly USD 0.9 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Greenbrier Companies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Greenbrier Companies options at the current volatility level of 29.69%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Greenbrier Companies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Greenbrier Stock please use our How to Invest in Greenbrier Companies guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Greenbrier Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.5247.8050.08
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
42.9547.2052.39
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.071.291.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Greenbrier Companies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Greenbrier Companies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Greenbrier Companies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Greenbrier Companies.

Greenbrier Companies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Greenbrier Companies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Greenbrier Companies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Greenbrier Companies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Greenbrier Companies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Greenbrier Companies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Greenbrier Companies' historical news coverage. Greenbrier Companies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.28 and 49.84, respectively. We have considered Greenbrier Companies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
48.72
47.56
After-hype Price
49.84
Upside
Greenbrier Companies is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Greenbrier Companies is based on 3 months time horizon.

Greenbrier Companies Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Greenbrier Companies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Greenbrier Companies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Greenbrier Companies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.12 
2.32
  0.18 
  0.09 
9 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
48.72
47.56
0.55 
153.64  
Notes

Greenbrier Companies Hype Timeline

On the 22nd of July Greenbrier Companies is traded for 48.72. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.18, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.09. Greenbrier is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 47.56 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 153.64%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.55%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.12%. The volatility of related hype on Greenbrier Companies is about 294.92%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.81. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.94 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 75.6 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 441.1 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Greenbrier Companies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Greenbrier Stock please use our How to Invest in Greenbrier Companies guide.

Greenbrier Companies Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Greenbrier Companies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Greenbrier Companies' future price movements. Getting to know how Greenbrier Companies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Greenbrier Companies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FSTRLB Foster(0.13)8 per month 0.00 (0.06) 5.76 (4.76) 18.20 
RAILFreightcar America(0.08)10 per month 0.00 (0.08) 6.55 (5.08) 20.71 
WABWestinghouse Air Brake 0.58 11 per month 0.74  0.07  2.12 (1.58) 12.11 
CSXCSX Corporation(0.38)10 per month 1.24 (0.08) 2.11 (1.93) 5.58 
TRNTrinity Industries 0.21 11 per month 1.31  0.08  3.41 (2.54) 16.27 
NSCNorfolk Southern 5.58 9 per month 0.00 (0.12) 2.63 (2.50) 6.56 
UNPUnion Pacific 2.07 10 per month 0.96 (0.01) 2.14 (1.83) 8.55 
CNICanadian National Railway 0.23 9 per month 0.00 (0.13) 1.70 (1.89) 6.36 
CPCanadian Pacific Railway(1.00)8 per month 1.64 (0.06) 2.35 (1.93) 8.66 

Greenbrier Companies Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Greenbrier price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Greenbrier using various technical indicators. When you analyze Greenbrier charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Greenbrier Companies Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Greenbrier Companies stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Greenbrier Companies, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Greenbrier Companies based on analysis of Greenbrier Companies hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Greenbrier Companies's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Greenbrier Companies's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.03860.0265
Price To Sales Ratio0.310.35

Story Coverage note for Greenbrier Companies

The number of cover stories for Greenbrier Companies depends on current market conditions and Greenbrier Companies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Greenbrier Companies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Greenbrier Companies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Greenbrier Companies Short Properties

Greenbrier Companies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Greenbrier Companies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Greenbrier Companies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Greenbrier Companies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Greenbrier Companies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding33.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments281.7 M

Additional Tools for Greenbrier Stock Analysis

When running Greenbrier Companies' price analysis, check to measure Greenbrier Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Greenbrier Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Greenbrier Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Greenbrier Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Greenbrier Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Greenbrier Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.